Bosnia-Herzegovina Real Estate Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 62

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The Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH) Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail and Industrial segments throughout the country in the context of the struggling Eurozone economy.
With a focus on the three principal cities of Sarajevo, Trebinje, and Zenica, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the eurozone crisis on an already struggling market.
Our latest data collection for full-year 2011 has revealed an industry-wide contraction in rental rates across all geographies surveyed, undoing much of the positive growth seen in 2010. The industrial sector has weathered the storm better than its counterparts due, in part, to the increased lease-length cycle, but in the medium term we expect the retail sector in particular to outperform.
Key Points: 􀂃 Revisions of land ownership and construction laws are under way, which will provide the industry with a more comparable legal base from which to operate.
􀂃 Projects to improve local infrastructure and increase foreign direct investment into the sector will positively impact the real estate segment.
􀂃 Improvement of legislation related to foreign investment, including tax incentives and a reduction in bureaucracy. Included are attempts to strengthen the protection of assets, and to encourage freedom in their management and disposal.
􀂃 Over the medium-term, the under-developed retail segment in the country will see increasing activity and improving supply and demand dynamics.
􀂃 We have revised down our 2011 real GDP growth estimate to 2.4% from 3.9% previously. We have similarly lowered the medium-term forecasts, projecting growth of 1.9% in 2012 and 2.3% in 2013 from 5.3% and 4.5% previously

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Bosnia & Herzegovina Real Estate/Construction SWOT ... 6
Bosnia & Herzegovina Political SWOT . 7
Bosnia & Herzegovina Economic SWOT ... 8
Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Environment SWOT 9
Real Estate Market Overview 10
Market Analysis – Office ... 13
Rents and Yields ... 13
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 13
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 14
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011... 14
Supply and Demand . 14
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 15
Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month) .. 15
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) .. 15
Market Analysis – Retail 16
Rents and Yields ... 16
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 16
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 16
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011... 17
Supply and Demand . 17
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 19
Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month) .. 19
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) .. 19
Market Analysis – Industrial . 20
Rents and Yields ... 20
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 20
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 20
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011... 21
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 21
Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month) .. 21
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) .. 21
Forecast Scenarios 22
Infrastructure Report 22
Table: Bosnia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 ... 22
Table: Bosnia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2013 - 2021 ... 22
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario . 23
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 29
Table: Bosnia-Herzegovina - Economic Activity, 2011-2016... 31
Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings (%) . 32
Business Environment Outlook 32
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings ... 33
Institutions ... 34
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating .. 34
Infrastructure ... 36
Table: Labour Force Quality ... 38
Market Orientation .. 39
Table: Emerging Europe - Annual FDI Inflows, 2006-2008, (US$) . 40
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings .. 41
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2001-2009, ... 43
Operational Risk .. 43
Competitive Landscape 44
Company Profiles .. 46
BBI Real Estate 46
Delta Real Estate Group .. 47
GP Put d.d. Sarajevo ... 48
STRABAG SE ... 49
Vranica d.d. Sarajevo .. 51
Demographic Forecast .. 52
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 53
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020, (% of total).. 54
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ... 55
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020.. 55
BMI Methodology ... 56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 56
Construction Industry .. 57
Bank Lending ... 58
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating .. 58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 59
Sources 61Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 13

Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 14

Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011. 14

Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month) . 15

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) . 15

Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 16

Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 16

Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011. 17

Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month) . 19

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) . 19

Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 20

Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 20

Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011. 21

Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month) . 21

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) . 21

Table: Bosnia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 . 22

Table: Bosnia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2013 - 2021 . 22

Table: Bosnia-Herzegovina - Economic Activity, 2011-2016. 31

Table: Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings (%) . 32

Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings . 33

Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating . 34

Table: Labour Force Quality . 38

Table: Emerging Europe - Annual FDI Inflows, 2006-2008, (US$) . 40

Table: Trade And Investment Ratings . 41

Table: Top Export Destinations, 2001-2009, . 43

Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 53

Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020, (% of total). 54

Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 55

Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020. 55

Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 59

Bosnia-Herzegovina Real Estate Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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