Australia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 117

Price:

BMI View: Australia is on track to become the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter in the latter half of the current decade, surpassing Qatar as a series of major projects enter service. However, there are question marks over the costs of Australian LNG relative to other suppliers. The boom in construction of LNG export capacity should drive investment over the coming years, with as much as US$200bn to be spent on up to 18 new schemes or project expansion projects. While gas exports are set to rise rapidly, Australia will also have to contend with a growing reliance on oil imports as domestic production declines.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia’s Oil and Gas sector are: 􀂃 Coal bed methane (CBM) will increasingly contribute to the country’s gas output, particularly in the east of the country, where CBM output will feed a number of LNG export terminals that are now under development. We expect overall gas production to hit 100bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2016, freeing up almost 62bcm of gas for export in the form of LNG, largely to Asian customers. By 2021, gas production should be around 130bcm, with LNG exports surpassing 85bcm. There are signs that some operators may delay expansion of their schemes either because of a weaker demand outlook or due to cost considerations.
􀂃 In July 2010, the Government announced a decision to extend the coverage of petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) to cover all onshore oil and gas production and existing offshore production not currently covered by the PRRT. The new provisions were passed by Parliament in March 2012 and will apply from 1 July 2012. Existing royalties and production excise will continue to apply from these areas, but will be creditable against future PRRT liabilities from each individual project.
􀂃 Australia''s Senate narrowly passed historic climate change legislation – to create the world''s second largest carbon trading scheme outside of the European Union – in November 2011. The scheme will come into effect on July 1 2012 at a price of AUD23 (US$23.74) per tonne of carbon. The price will rise by around 2.5% in real terms in each of the next two years. From 2015 onwards, the price will be determined by the market, though a price ceiling and floor will be put in place.
􀂃 According to the country’s energy ministry, Australia is using oil three times faster than it is finding it. Oil import dependency is expected to increase to 78% within the next 10 years. Government forecasts suggest petroleum import dependency rose to 50% in 2010. BMI is assuming oil and gas liquids production averaging no more than 535,000b/d at its new peak in 2013, before declining to 505,000b/d by 2016 and to 386,000b/d by 2021.
􀂃 By 2021, the oil import requirement is expected to rise to 660,000b/d, costing some US$23.36bn (assuming an average OPEC basket oil price of US$97.00/bbl). In 2012, we expect Australia to import an average 451,000b/d at a cost of US$18.35bn using an OPEC oil price of US$111.47/bbl. Gas exports are forecast to rise to 62bcm by 2016, bringing in potential LNG revenues of around US$30.49bn. Net petroleum export proceeds by 2021 are estimated at US$18.09bn, with the higher LNG exports helping to offset the rising oil imports.

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis . 9
Australia Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Global Energy Market Outlook .. 10
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) .. 10
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 16
Regional Energy Market Outlook .. 17
Australia Energy Market Overview ... 22
Table: Australia – Upstream Project Database ... 23
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 25
Table: Australia Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 25
Table: Australia Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 26
Oil And Gas Reserves .. 27
Oil Supply And Demand... 28
Gas Supply And Demand . 29
LNG . 29
Coal Bed Methane/Coal Seam Gas .. 30
Refining And Oil Products Trade . 30
Revenues/Import Costs 30
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 30
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 31
Oil Refineries 31
Table: Refineries In Australia .. 31
LNG Terminals . 31
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia . 32
North-Western WA ... 33
Northern Territory ... 38
East-Central Queensland . 40
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings ... 44
Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings .. 48
Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings.. 49
Australia Upstream Rating – Overview ... 49
Australia Upstream Rating – Rewards . 49
Australia Upstream Rating – Risks .. 50
Australia Downstream Rating – Overview ... 50
Competitive Landscape . 51
Executive Summary ... 51
Table: Key Players – Australia Oil And Gas Sector 52
Overview/State Role .. 52
Government Policy .. 53
Licensing Rounds . 56
Table: Key Upstream Players .. 59
Table: Key Downstream Players . 60
Company Monitor ... 61
Woodside Petroleum . 61
Santos ... 64
BHP Billiton . 67
Apache Corp . 69
Arrow Energy ... 72
Chevron Australia . 74
ConocoPhillips . 77
ExxonMobil Australia ... 80
Royal Dutch Shell . 83
BG Group Australia .. 86
Origin Energy – Summary ... 89
Dart Energy Summary . 90
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) – Summary ... 90
BP – Summary . 91
Petrobras/MEO – Summary . 92
Roc Oil – Summary .. 92
Inpex – Summary . 93
Sinopec – Summary .. 93
PTTEP – Summary .. 94
Murphy Oil – Summary 95
Total – Summary .. 96
Hess – Summary .. 96
Others – Summary ... 96
Asia – Regional Appendix . 99
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) ... 99
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) 100
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) ..100
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) 101
Table: Refining Capacity Forecasts, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) .102
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) ..102
Table: Gas Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ..103
Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) ...104
Table: Gas Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ...104
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 105
Table: LNG Exports Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ..106
Table: LNG Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)106
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ... 107
Glossary Of Terms ... 108
Table: Glossary of Terms 108
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 110
Ratings Overview .110
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure ..111
Indicators .111
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology ...112
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology ...113
BMI Methodology . 115
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..115
Energy Industry ...115
Cross checks 116
Sources 116Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 10

Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 16

Table: Australia – Upstream Project Database . 23

Table: Australia Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 25

Table: Australia Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 26

Table: Refineries In Australia . 31

Table: LNG Terminals In Australia . 32

Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings . 48

Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings. 49

Table: Key Players – Australia Oil And Gas Sector . 52

Table: Key Upstream Players . 59

Table: Key Downstream Players . 60

Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) . 99

Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) .100

Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) .100

Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) .101

Table: Refining Capacity Forecasts, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) .102

Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) .102

Table: Gas Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) .103

Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .104

Table: Gas Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) .104

Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .105

Table: LNG Exports Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) .106

Table: LNG Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm).106

Table: Glossary of Terms .108

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure .111

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology .112

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology .113

Australia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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