Argentina Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 87

Price:

BMI View: Despite our forecast for a disappointing 2011/12 grains season owing to unfavourable weather conditions, Argentina will still run a surplus in almost all commodities. One of the main weaknesses of the sector is the country''s inconsistent export policy, which leads to recurrent farmers'' strikes and distrust from the country''s buyers. This also discourages farmers from investing and producing more in the longer term, resulting in reduced yields and crop quality. That said, the sector is likely to have plenty of production incentives in the coming years, and we expect Argentina to remain a key and integrated player in the global agricultural markets.
Key Forecasts 􀂃 Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 37.9% on the 2010/11 level to 2.8mn tonnes. We expect the amount of sugar cane diverted towards ethanol production to increase. The strong increase in sugar cane planted will translate into greater centrifugal production as well.
􀂃 Pork production growth to 2015/16: 15.9% to 357,060 tonnes. This will be driven by the government''s efforts to reduce the proportion of beef in the local diet in order to free up more for export.
􀂃 Soybean consumption growth to 2016: 15.4% to 46.9mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by the government''s support of biodiesel production and by strong export demand for soybean oil and soybean meal from China. 􀂃 2012 real GDP growth: 4.0% (down from 9.3% in 2011; predicted to average around 4% to 2016).
􀂃 2012 consumer price inflation: 21.0% average (from 9.8% average in 2011). Industry Developments We have revised down our corn production expectations for 2011/12, as extremely dry conditions and very high temperatures at the end of 2011 have reduced output. The areas most affected are in the country''s key corn belt, including Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Cordoba. Tensions are rising again between the government and grains and soy producers in Argentina, as the Buenos Aires province decided a new land tax hike. This could put significant pressure on farmers'' profits and limit production incentives in one of the country''s largest grains-producing regions. We are forecasting steady growth in Argentine poultry production in 2011/12 as consumers turn towards this healthier and increasingly cheaper option. We forecast poultry production growth in Argentina to surpass beef and pork output growth in the medium term because of increased investment in the sector in genetic improvement, high-quality feed and sanitation. Furthermore, poultry farmers benefit from easy access to feed grains and do not face export restrictions. Output will also be fuelled by strong demand from the export market as currency devaluations make Argentina very competitive and avian flu hampers Asian rivals.
The 2011/12 Argentine soybean harvest ended in May, and we expect production to have fallen in yearon- year terms. Argentina will keep its position as the world''s third largest soybean exporter and largest exporter of soy oil. However, exports are expected to be low in 2011/12 on the back of lower production.
In 2012, domestic soybean consumption will grow owing to the government''s biofuel law, which came into force in 2010 and mandates that all gasoline sold in Argentina must contain at least 5% biodiesel. In the coming years, domestic soybean consumption will be reliant on continued strong demand for soybean products given increasing demand for soybean, especially from China''s booming meat industry.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Argentina Agriculture Swot 7
Argentina Business Environment SWOT 8
Supply Demand Analysis 9
Argentina Sugar Outlook 9
Table: Argentina Sugar Production & Consumption . 9
Table: Argentina Sugar Production & Consumption ... 11
Argentina Livestock Outlook . 12
Table: Argentina Poultry Production & Consumption . 13
Table: Argentina Pork Production & Consumption . 13
Table: Argentina Beef & Veal Production & Consumption . 13
Table: Argentina Poultry Production & Consumption . 17
Table: Argentina Pork Production & Consumption . 18
Table: Argentina Beef & Veal Production & Consumption . 18
Argentina Dairy Outlook... 19
Table: Argentina Milk Production & Consumption . 20
Table: Argentina Butter Production & Consumption ... 20
Table: Argentina Cheese Production & Consumption . 20
Table: Argentina Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption . 20
Table: Argentina Milk Production & Consumption . 24
Table: Argentina Butter Production & Consumption ... 25
Table: Argentina A Cheese Production & Consumption .. 25
Table: Argentina Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption . 25
Argentina Grains Outlook . 26
Table: Argentina Wheat Production & Consumption .. 27
Table: Argentina Corn Production & Consumption 27
Table: Argentina Wheat Production & Consumption .. 31
Table: Argentina Corn Production & Consumption 32
Argentina Soybean Outlook .. 32
Table: Argentina Soybean Production & Consumption ... 33
Table: Argentina Soybean Production & Consumption ... 37
Commodity Price Analysis ... 39
Monthly Softs Update ... 39
Cocoa: Signs Of Life 40
Coffee: Holding Key Support ... 42
Palm Oil: Uptrend Intact . 44
Sugar: Watching Brazilian Yields 45
Cotton: Downside Risks ... 47
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts .. 48
Monthly Grains Update 49
Wheat: Upside Risks Materialising .. 50
Corn: Moderation In Place .. 52
Soybean: Looking Weak ... 54
Rice: Temporary Strength 56
Commodity Performance . 56
Upstream Analysis 57
Tractor Growth In The Americas Driven By Brazil And Argentina ... 57
GM Plantings Growth To Slow, Americas To Remain The Largest Exporter ... 60
Americas Fertiliser Quarterly ... 64
Downstream Analysis ... 66
Food .. 66
Table: Argentina Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts -- 2009-2006 .. 68
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts -- 2009-2006 69
Prepared Food .. 70
Oils & Fats .. 70
Table: Argentina Oils And Fats -- Historical Data & Forecasts -- 2009-2006 70
Dairy 71
Table: Argentina Dairy -- Historical Data & Forecasts -- 2009-2006. 71
Drink 73
Table: Argentina Coffee -- Historical Data & Forecasts -- 2009-2006 ... 73
Table: Argentina Tea -- Historical Data & Forecasts -- 2009-2006 74
Table: Argentina Alcoholic Drinks -- Historical Data & Forecasts -- 2009-2006 ... 75
Soft Drinks ... 76
Table: Argentina Carbonated Soft Drinks -- Historical Data & Forecasts -- 2009-2006 77
Mass Grocery Retail . 78
Table: Argentina Mass Grocery Retail -- Value Sales by Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts -- 2009-2016. 78
Table: Argentina Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type -- 2010 And 2020 . 79
Table: Argentina Food & Drink Trade Balance -- Historical Data & Forecasts -- 2009-2016 ... 79
Country Snapshot: Argentina Demographic Data . 80
Table: Argentina''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000). 81
Table: Argentina''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 82
Table: Argentina''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 83
Table: Argentina''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .. 83
BMI Forecast Modelling 84
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 84Table: Q312 Risk/Reward Ratings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data And Forecasts (ARS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Table: Argentina Wireless Market, Q112 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Table: Argentina Wireless Market, Net Additions, Q411-Q112 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Table: Mobile Contract Wins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Table: Argentina Mobile Market Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Table: Claro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Table: Movistar (Telefónica) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Table: Telecom Personal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

Table: Nextel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Table: Argentine Local Fixed-Line Market Q112 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

Table: Argentina Lines And Lines In Service (''000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

Table: Residential Internet Subscribers (''000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Table: Wireline Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

Table: Alcatel-Lucent, Selected Latin America Contracts, Q411 And Q112 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

Table: Regional Internet User Penetration Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

Table: Glossary Of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114

Table: Ratings Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

Table: Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

Argentina Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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