Turkey Retail Report Q3 2012

Published : June 2012
No. of Pages : 84

Price:

The Turkish Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm
concerns about the impact on Turkey’s economic outlook of the large current account deficit and the
economy''s overreliance on short-term capital inflows.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Turkish retail market while minimising
investment risk, and also explores the impact of slowing domestic demand resulting from the surge in
global oil prices on the Turkish consumer, and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns
in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading
players in the Turkish retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local
market.
Turkish per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 62% to 2016, compared with a regional
growth average of 59%. The country comes fifth (out of 10) in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
Retail Risk/Reward Ratings.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in
growth terms, with sales forecast to reach US$15.72bn in 2012, and to grow much faster than overall food
sales throughout the forecast period – by more than 84%, compared with 58% – to US$28.95bn by 2016.
BMI forecasts that MGR’s share of the overall food market will rise from 36.2% in 2012 to 42.1% by the
end of the review period.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that the Turkish government has recently
announced a new investment incentive package to help attract investment to underdeveloped regions,
mainly in the south east and east of the country.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
􀂃 Despite the improvement in global liquidity witnessed over the past quarter, BMI holds to its
forecast for Turkish real GDP growth to fall significantly to 1.8% in 2012, down from an
estimated 8.0% in 2011. In 2013 and 2014 we expect real GDP growth to pick up towards 5.4%.
􀂃 BMI sees private consumption coming off the boil in 2012, and forecasts real growth of just
2.4%, down from 7.0% in 2011. This will result in a percentage contribution to real growth of
just 1.6% in 2012, down from 4.8% in 2011 and 4.7% in 2010.
􀂃 BMI expects the government''s introduction of a special consumption tax on automobiles and
mobile phones, as well as cigarettes and alcohol products, to have a noticeable effect on
consumption levels in the economy over the coming quarters.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Turkey Retail Business Environment SWOT 6
Turkey Political SWOT ... 7
Turkey Economic SWOT . 7
Market Overview .. 8
Current Trends 9
Key Players ... 12
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Retail Growth Outlook .. 19
Table: Turkey Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 19
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2012f .. 21
Organised Retail ... 21
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 22
Table: Turkey – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 24
Regional Retail Outlook 25
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook . 25
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016. 25
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 27
Regional Retail Trends.. 27
Risk/Reward Ratings . 34
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings . 34
Turkey’s Retail Rating .. 35
Limits of Potential Returns 35
Risks to Realisation of Returns .. 36
Mass Grocery Retail .. 37
Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 37
Market Overview ... 38
Table: Structure Of Turkey''s Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Number Of Outlets, 2003-2011 . 40
Table: Structure Of Turkey''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format, 2003-2011 (US$bn) .. 40
Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet, 2011e .. 40
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 41
Table: Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 42
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011 & 2021f ... 42
Industry Developments .. 42
Consumer Electronics... 46
Turkey Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 46
Market Overview ... 47
Computers . 48
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 . 48
AV . 51
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 .. 51
Mobile Handsets ... 53
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 . 54
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 57
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 . 58
Industry Developments .. 59
Automotives ... 62
Turkey Autos Industry SWOT 62
Market Overview ... 63
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 68
Table: Turkey Autos Production, 2010-2016 (CBUs) ... 68
Table: Turkey Autos Sales, 2010-2016 (CBUs) . 68
Table: Turkey Car Ownership Rates, 2010-2016 .. 68
Industry Developments .. 72
Demographic Outlook ... 78
Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) .. 79
Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population) 80
Table: Turkey''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .. 81
Table: Turkey''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 81
BMI Methodology ... 82
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 82
Sources.. 83Table: Turkey Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 . 19

Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2012f . 21

Table: Turkey – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 24

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016. 25

Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) . 26

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 . 27

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings . 34

Table: Structure Of Turkey''s Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Number Of Outlets, 2003-2011 . 40

Table: Structure Of Turkey''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format, 2003-2011 (US$bn) . 40

Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet, 2011e . 40

Table: Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 42

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011 & 2021f . 42

Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 . 48

Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 . 51

Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 . 54

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 . 58

Table: Turkey Autos Production, 2010-2016 (CBUs) . 68

Table: Turkey Autos Sales, 2010-2016 (CBUs) . 68

Table: Turkey Car Ownership Rates, 2010-2016 . 68

Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 79

Table: Turkey''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population) . 80

Table: Turkey''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 81

Table: Turkey''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 81

Turkey Retail Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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