Syria Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

Published : June 2012
No. of Pages : 67

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Syria remains an important actor in the Middle East and Mediterranean regions. It plays a key part in the
ongoing dispute between Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories, and in the intra-religious Sunni-
Shia Muslim tensions in the region.
BMI’s Syria Defence & Security report for Q312 examines the country’s place in these regions, and the
wider world, while also examining the country’s armed forces and its military procurements. The report’s
conclusion remains that while Syria continues to retain robust and relatively well-equipped armed forces,
the ability of these armed forces to bring the current rebellion against the rule of President Bashar al-
Assad under control remains in doubt. The report also posits that realistic development of the Syrian
economy and its political structures is all but impossible while the internal violence continues.
The report examines the key risks facing Syria. These risks include the ongoing rebellion against Assad’s
rule. The violence being witnessed in Syria risks making the country ungovernable and slowing, or even
reversing, national development. Syria is becoming increasingly ostracised by the international
community as a result of Assad’s brutal crackdown against the rebellion. Syria’s neighbours, notably
Turkey, are becoming impatient with the Assad’s actions, particularly as regards cross-border military
action that has targeted Turkish border areas. Finally, Assad has been able to both court and dismiss
international diplomatic efforts to bring the crisis to a close. This has bought Assad short-term gains at
home to continue his crackdown, but in the long term this may bring him increasingly isolation amid
growing international support for some form of military action to be taken against the Syrian government.
Since BMI’s publication of its last Syria Defence & Security report, a number of changes have been
made, including the addition of the following discussions:
􀂃 The deployment of a United Nations observer mission into the country to monitor a joint United
Nations-Arab League ceasefire.
􀂃 The spread of violence to other cities around Syria beyond Homs.
􀂃 The apparent Islamisation of the rebellion against Assad’s rule, and the actions of radical Islamic
organisations within Syria.
􀂃 The rebel’s change of tactics from conventional confrontations with the Syrian security forces, to
hit-and-run attacks against the regime.
􀂃 A summary of Syrian cross-border incursions into Turkey and Lebanon.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Syria Security SWOT.. 6
Syria Defence Industry SWOT 7
Syria Political SWOT . 8
Syria Economic SWOT ... 8
Syria Business Environment SWOT ... 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 .. 10
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula ... 10
Table: Election Timetable, Q312-Q113 ... 14
Wild Cards To Watch ... 18
Middle East Security Overview 20
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s ... 20
The Middle East In A Global Context .. 20
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security ... 20
Regional Power Dynamics ... 30
Nuclear Proliferation ... 32
External Powers ... 33
Scenarios For The Middle East 35
Security Risk Ratings 37
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings . 37
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 38
Political Overview .. 39
What If The Assad Regime Survives? ... 39
Security Overview .. 41
External Security Situation .. 43
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 46
Armed Forces... 46
International Deployments ... 50
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 51
Market Overview 53
Imports . 54
Exports . 54
Procurement Trends And Developments .. 54
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 56
Armed Forces... 56
Table: Syria’s Armed Forces, 2001-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ... 56
Table: Syria’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) ... 56
Defence Expenditure 57
Table: Syria’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 57
Table: Syria’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) .. 58
Defence Trade .. 59
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 59
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 59
Political Crisis Will Cripple Economy In 2012 59
Table: Syria – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .. 61
Country Snapshot: Syria Demographic Data.. 62
Section 1: Population ... 62
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 62
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 63
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 63
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ... 63
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 63
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 64
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2003 .. 64
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 64
Methodology .. 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 65
Defence Industry .. 65
Sources 66Table: Election Timetable, Q312-Q113 . 14

Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings . 37

Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 38

Table: Syria''s Armed Forces, 2001-2008 (''000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 56

Table: Syria''s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 56

Table: Syria''s Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 57

Table: Syria''s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 58

Table: Syria – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 61

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 62

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 63

Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 63

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 63

Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2003 . 64

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) . 64

Syria Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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