Serbia Retail Report Q3 2012

Published : June 2012
No. of Pages : 76

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The Serbian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm
concerns about the impact on Serbia’s economic outlook of fiscal austerity measures.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Serbian retail market while minimising
investment risk, and also explores the impact of the eurozone recession and declining remittances, on the
Serbian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading
players in the Serbian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local
market.
Serbia comes first (out of 10) in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings,
although its Risk rating is comparatively low.
Among all retail categories, autos will be one of the outperformers through to 2016 in growth terms, with
new car sales up more than 28% to 39,246 units by the end of the forecast period. BMI’s Autos team
believes that Serbia''s geographical position could help it emerge as an autos hub for the Commonwealth
of Independent States region.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that, on March 1 2012, the EU awarded
Serbia candidate status. Although Serbia is unlikely to join the EU before 2018, the accession process
itself will provide the government with a policy anchor and development funds. We also expect investors
to be enticed by the prospect of eventual access to the single market.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
􀂃 BMI expects trend real GDP growth of 4.3% between 2014 and 2016 in light of the EU having
awarded Serbia candidate status, reflecting years of judicial, political and macroeconomic
reforms.
􀂃 BMI expects private consumption to expand by 0.5% in 2012 and by 2.0% in 2013 as inflation
moderates from a yearly average of 11.2% in 2011 to 4.6% in 2012; mitigating the effects of the
dinar''s collapse, having increased the cost of servicing a large foreign exchange-denominated
household debt pile, and the eurozone recession hitting remittances.
􀂃 With recent data showing that Bulgarian retail sales declined a seasonally adjusted 2% monthon-
month in February 2012 (the biggest drop since January 2010, when sales tumbled 3.9%),
BMI has strengthened its view that there will not be a significant change in trend.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Serbia Retail Business Environment SWOT 6
Serbia Political SWOT 7
Serbia Economic SWOT .. 7
Market Overview .. 8
Current Trends 9
Key Players ... 10
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 12
Consumer Outlook 12
Table: Serbia Sales Indicators, 2011-2016 ... 13
Organised Retail ... 14
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 16
Table: Serbia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 18
Regional Retail Outlook 19
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook . 19
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016. 19
Table: Regional Retail Sales, US$bn 20
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 21
Regional Retail Trends.. 21
Business Environment Outlook ... 28
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings . 28
Serbia’s Retail Rating ... 29
Limits Of Potential Returns ... 29
Risks To Realisation Of Returns 29
Mass Grocery Retail .. 31
Serbia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT . 31
Market Overview ... 32
Leading Players 32
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets . 33
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Retail Format ... 34
Table: Value Sales Per Outlet, 2010 Estimate .. 34
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 35
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 36
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown By Retail Format (% Of Total) . 37
Industry Developments .. 37
Consumer Electronics... 41
Serbia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 41
Market Overview ... 42
Computers . 43
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 . 43
AV . 46
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 .. 46
Mobile Handsets ... 49
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 . 49
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 52
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 . 53
Industry Developments .. 55
Automotives ... 57
Serbia Autos Industry SWOT. 57
Market Overview ... 58
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 61
Table: Serbian Automotive Production And Sales (CBUs) 61
Trade . 65
Table: Serbian Automotive Trade . 65
Industry Developments .. 67
Demographic Outlook ... 70
Table: Serbia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) ... 71
Table: Serbia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .. 72
Table: Serbia''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ... 73
Table: Serbia''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 73
BMI Methodology ... 74
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 74
Sources.. 75Table: Serbia Sales Indicators, 2011-2016 . 13

Table: Serbia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 18

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016. 19

Table: Regional Retail Sales, US$bn . 20

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 . 21

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings . 28

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets . 33

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Retail Format . 34

Table: Value Sales Per Outlet, 2010 Estimate . 34

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts . 36

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown By Retail Format (% Of Total) . 37

Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 . 43

Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 . 46

Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 . 49

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 . 53

Table: Serbian Automotive Production And Sales (CBUs). 61

Table: Serbian Automotive Trade . 65

Table: Serbia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 71

Table: Serbia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 72

Table: Serbia''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 73

Table: Serbia''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 73

Serbia Retail Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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