Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published : June 2012
No. of Pages : 99

Price:

BMI View: Oil and gas exports form one of the key pillars of the Indonesian economy although the
outlook for the sector is becoming increasingly uncertain given dwindling oil reserves in the country’s
maturing fields. The government has recently put in place measures to incentivise oil companies to
conduct deep-sea exploration in a bid to increase total reserves. Greater domestic consumption leading
to higher imports and lesser exports will be a key trend in the years to come.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia''s Oil and Gas sector are:
 We have revised up our 2016 crude oil and gas liquids production forecast from 916,000 barrels
per day (b/d) to 927,800b/d due to increased production from ExxonMobil’s Cepu field, which
is to reach peak production of 165,000b/d by late 2014. The country will remain a net importer
of oil – with 2016 consumption forecast at 1.55mn b/d as domestic electricity demand in the
country expands along with economic growth.
 Under current production sharing contracts (PSCs), the government takes 85% of oil production
while the remaining 15% goes to the oil contractor. For deep-sea oil projects, the government is
willing to decrease its stake to 65% in a bid to incentivise oil companies to conduct deep-sea oil
exploration. Without the discovery of any major oil deposits, we expect the country’s proven oil
reserves to decline from 4,200mn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to 3,640mn bbl by 2021.
 Steps are being taken to cope with rapidly rising demand for fuel and electricity. The
government has been considering scrapping fuel subsidies for private cars – starting on April 1
2012 in Greater Jakarta and later for other parts of Java and Bali.
 Natural gas production is expected to have hit a near-term peak of around 87.3bn cubic meters
(bcm) in 2011. The country''s gas consumption is on the rise and is forecast to reach 54.5bcm by
2016. We expect natural gas exports to decline substantially from 44.5bcm in 2011 to 31bcm by
2016.
 Production from Indonesia''s East Natuna gas project is unlikely to start before 2022, and
bringing the large-scale project onstream could cost up to US$40bn. The Natuna D-Alpha block
is estimated to hold 1,300bcm of recoverable gas reserves, making it the largest single gas field
in Asia.
 Domestic consumption is set to drive crude oil imports to US$22.5bn by 2016 from US$17.2bn
in 2011. Natural gas exports will also be diverted domestically with exports set to decline from
US$23.8bn in 2011 down to US$15.3bn in 2016.
 At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47/bbl, falling to
US$107.00/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an assumed 3.1% in
2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For
2013, growth is estimated at 3.3%.

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Indonesia Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook... 7
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook. 14
Indonesia Energy Market Overview. 19
Table: Indonesia – Upstream Project Database... 21
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 22
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016. 22
Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 23
Oil and Gas Reserves. 25
Oil Supply And Demand 25
Gas Supply and Demand ... 26
Coal Bed Methane . 27
LNG 27
Refining and Oil Products Trade .. 29
Revenues/Import Costs .. 30
Key Risks To BMI''s Forecast Scenario . 30
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 31
Oil Refineries . 31
Table: Refineries In Indonesia, 2008-2016... 31
Service Stations.. 32
Oil Terminals/Ports ... 33
Oil Pipelines .. 33
LNG Terminals .. 33
Table: LNG Export Terminals In Indonesia.. 33
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 39
Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings ... 43
Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings .. 43
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Overview 44
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Rewards.. 44
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Risks ... 44
Indonesia Downstream Rating - Overview ... 44
Competitive Landscape 45
Executive Summary. 45
Table: Key Players – Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector.. 46
Overview/State Role 46
Licensing and Regulation .. 46
Government Policy 47
Licensing Rounds... 48
Table: Key Upstream Players 52
Table: Key Downstream Players... 52
Company Monitor .. 53
Chevron Indonesia.. 56
ExxonMobil Indonesia 59
BP Indonesia... 61
CNOOC Indonesia .. 64
ConocoPhillips Indonesia... 66
Total E&P Indonesie... 68
Medco Energi.. 70
Eni Indonesia .. 72
Salamander Energy. 74
CNPC/ PetroChina – Summary. 76
Petronas – Summary.. 76
Marathon Oil – Summary .. 76
Hess – Summary. 77
VICO Indonesia – Summary .. 77
Inpex – Summary ... 78
Santos – Summary.. 79
Badak NGL – Summary . 79
Serica Energy – Summary . 80
AWE – Summary 80
Premier Oil – Summary. 80
Others – Summary . 81
Asia – Regional Appendix 82
Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016. 82
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d) . 82
Table: Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 83
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d). 84
Table: Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016 84
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d) 85
Table: Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016 86
Table: Gas Production Long-Term forecasts (bcm) . 86
Table: Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016 . 87
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term forecasts (bcm).. 88
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016. 88
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2014-2021. 89
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 90
Glossary Of Terms. 91
Table: Glossary of Terms .. 91
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 93
Ratings Overview 93
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure... 94
Indicators 94
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology. 94
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology... 95
BMI Methodology... 97
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 97
Energy Industry... 97
Cross checks 98
Sources 98Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 7

Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 13

Table: Indonesia – Upstream Project Database. 21

Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016. 22

Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021. 23

Table: Refineries In Indonesia, 2008-2016. 31

Table: LNG Export Terminals In Indonesia. 33

Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings . 43

Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings . 43

Table: Key Players – Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector. 46

Table: Key Upstream Players. 52

Table: Key Downstream Players. 52

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016. 82

Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d) . 82

Table: Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 . 83

Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d). 84

Table: Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016 . 84

Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d). 85

Table: Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016 . 86

Table: Gas Production Long-Term forecasts (bcm) . 86

Table: Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016 . 87

Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term forecasts (bcm). 88

Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016. 88

Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2014-2021. 89

Table: Glossary of Terms . 91

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure. 94

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology. 94

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology. 95

Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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