Czech Republic Retail Report Q3 2012

Published : June 2012
No. of Pages : 75

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The Czech Republic Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but
flags short-term concerns about the impact on the country’s economic outlook of high unemployment and
ongoing fiscal austerity.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Czech retail market while minimising
investment risk, and also explores the impact of the increasingly precarious looking eurozone
macroeconomic environment on the Czech consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to
realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading
players in the Czech retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local
market.
Czech per capita consumer spending is forecast to stand at US$9,949 in 2012, compared with US$7,031
for the region as a whole. The country comes second (out of 10) in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe
(CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, and notably outperforms for Risk.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth
terms, with BMI forecasting sales to expand by almost 21%, from US$4.46bn in 2012 to US$5.38bn by
2016. Per capita consumer electronics spending is forecast to grow by at least 19% to US$513 by 2016 as
sales of digital products increase.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that an influx of EU funds will help boost
spending on computers and help drive information society development.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
􀂃 BMI is forecasting the Czech Republic to experience real GDP growth of 0.1% in 2012, down
from 1.7% in 2011. While we expect the same dynamics that have driven the economic recovery
to remain dominant with growth coming from net exports and investments, the weakening
external environment and continued uncertainty regarding the eurozone sovereign debt crisis will
mean that contributions from these components of real GDP moderate in 2012.
􀂃 BMI highlights that the Czech consumer continues to be held back by high unemployment and
ongoing fiscal austerity. The unemployment rate ticked up in January 2012 to 9.1% from 8.6%
the previous month, and BMI now expects the joblessness rate to remain elevated in 2012,
forecasting an average 8.3% in 2012, down from 8.6% in 2011.
􀂃 Trading conditions in the retail sector continue to be challenging. According to the Czech
Statistical Office (CZSO), retail sales in the first two months of 2012 contracted on an annual
basis by a working day-adjusted 0.5% in January and 1.6% in February. The figures were held
back by lower food sales, which continued to fall on the back of a 4.0% rise in the lower rate of
VAT.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Czech Republic Retail Business Environment SWOT .. 7
Czech Republic Political SWOT .. 8
Czech Republic Economic SWOT 8
Market Overview .. 9
Current Trends .. 10
Key Players ... 12
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Retail Growth Outlook .. 17
Table: Czech Republic Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016... 17
Table: Retail Sales By Segment, 2012f .. 18
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 19
Table: Czech Republic - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 ... 21
Regional Retail Outlook 22
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook . 22
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016. 22
Table: Regional Retail Sales, US$bn 23
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 24
Regional Retail Trends.. 24
Risk/Reward Ratings . 31
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings . 31
Czech Republic’s Retail Rating . 32
Limits To Potential Returns .. 32
Risks To Realisation Of Returns 33
Mass Grocery Retail .. 34
Czech Republic Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT... 34
Market Overview ... 35
Leading Retailers .. 35
Table: Structure Of The MGR Market By Number Of Outlets, 2004-2011 37
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2011 And 2021 (% of total) .. 37
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 38
Table: MGR Sales, 2009-2016 .. 39
Industry Developments .. 40
Consumer Electronics... 44
Czech Republic Consumer Electronics Market SWOT .. 44
Market Overview ... 45
Table: Top Four Czech Electronics Retailers, Revenue 2008-2009 (CZKbn) ... 45
Computers . 46
Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016 . 46
AV . 50
Table: AV Sales . 50
Table: Analogue vs Digital TV Subscribers .. 52
Mobile Handsets ... 54
Table: Mobile Communications,2008-2016 .. 54
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 58
Consumer Electronics Market ... 58
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview 59
Industry Developments .. 60
Automotives ... 62
Czech Republic Autos Industry SWOT .. 62
Market Overview ... 63
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars 2011 . 64
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 65
Table: Czech Autos Production . 65
Table: Czech Autos Sales .. 65
Demographic Data . 69
Table: The Czech Republic''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) .. 70
Table: The Czech Republic''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 71
Table: The Czech Republic''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020.. 72
Table: The Czech Republic''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ... 72
BMI Methodology ... 73
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 73
Sources.. 74Table: Czech Republic Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016. 17

Table: Retail Sales By Segment, 2012f . 18

Table: Czech Republic - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 21

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016. 22

Table: Regional Retail Sales, US$bn . 23

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 . 24

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings . 31

Table: Structure Of The MGR Market By Number Of Outlets, 2004-2011 . 37

Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2011 And 2021 (% of total) . 37

Table: MGR Sales, 2009-2016 . 39

Table: Top Four Czech Electronics Retailers, Revenue 2008-2009 (CZKbn) . 45

Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016 . 46

Table: AV Sales . 50

Table: Analogue vs Digital TV Subscribers . 52

Table: Mobile Communications,2008-2016 . 54

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview . 59

Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars 2011 . 64

Table: Czech Autos Production . 65

Table: Czech Autos Sales . 65

Table: The Czech Republic''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 70

Table: The Czech Republic''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 71

Table: The Czech Republic''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020. 72

Table: The Czech Republic''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 72

Czech Republic Retail Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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