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Caribbean Tourism Report Q3 2012

Published : 
No. of Pages : 39
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The Caribbean Tourism Report examines the enormous long-term potential of the market, given its
reputation as a major tourism destination, but analyses the impact of a slowdown in Europe – one of its
major markets – especially as the Caribbean is a relatively expensive holiday destination
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Caribbean tourism market, capitalising on the
region’s wide variety of tourism destinations and well developed tourism infrastructure. The report also
assesses differences between the key island groupings and which are recovering more swiftly.
We also analyse the key players in the Caribbean market, both domestic and foreign, and the development
strategies they are employing to maximise returns during the economic slowdown.
Key Findings
Data released by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) in April 2012 showed that the region
enjoyed a good start to the year, with only one country experiencing a decline in tourist arrivals; the
lowest number of countries to do so since the financial crisis hit in 2007. This country was Dominica,
with an arrivals decline of 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). However, Dominica has as yet only reported
arrivals data for January, meaning that arrivals may pick up in the rest of the traditional high season.
Of the other countries, only Aruba and Barbados have reported data for the first quarter of 2011,
experiencing arrivals growth of 2.4% y-o-y and 2.3% y-o-y respectively, Of those reporting January-
February arrivals data, Guyana experienced a surge in arrivals growth of 18.7% y-o-y, followed by
Martinique (10.9%), the US Virgin Islands (9.0%) and Anguilla (7.7%). Although this data is only for
two or three months, it does indicate that the improving arrivals trend in late 2011 is continuing into 2012,
boding well for arrivals throughout the year.
Focus On Guyana
Guyana is one of least well known destinations in the Caribbean Community (Caricom), of which it is a
member. However, Guyana is located beyond the Caribbean, on the South American continent, and
neighbours Venezuela, Brazil and Suriname. As well as its links to the Caribbean, Guyana is being
marketed as an unusual route for visitors to enter South America, with its land links meaning that a visit
to Guyana can easily lead on to Brazil and other South American countries. Moreover, Guyana’s status as
the only English-speaking country in South America has allowed it to promote itself particularly in the
UK and North America.
Key Changes Made
BMI analyses the tourist arrivals across the Caribbean for the first months of 2012, assessing the drivers
behind strong performance in some markets and weaker in others.
BMI looks at the deteriorating financial position of Caribbean Airlines, and the difficulty it is
experiencing in merging the operations of Air Jamaica into its own.
BMI reports on the financial results of major players in the region such as Royal Caribbean Cruises and
Meliá Hotels International, and how these companies are likely to perform in 2012.

Executive Summary . 4
SWOT Analysis 6
Caribbean Tourism SWOT . 6
Caribbean Political SWOT 6
Caribbean Economic SWOT .. 7
Caribbean Business Environment SWOT ... 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 8
Arrivals And Accommodation . 8
Table: Arrivals And Accommodation, 2009-2016 (‘000) ... 8
Expenditure . 9
Table: Tourist Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 9
Inbound Tourism . 9
Table: Tourist Stopover Arrivals, 2012 .. 9
Table: Tourist Stopover Arrivals, 2011 10
Table: Tourist Arrivals And Expenditure On Individual Islands, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) .. 11
Focus: Guyana .. 13
Market Overview – Travel . 15
Commercial Airlines . 15
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ... 17
Table: BMI''s Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 18
Market Overview – Hospitality .. 26
Cruise Industry . 26
Table: Cruise Passenger Arrivals, 2010-2011 . 26
Accommodation 27
Luxury Hotels... 28
Global Assumptions .. 29
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 ... 29
Developed States ... 30
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 31
Emerging Markets . 32
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 .. 32
Consensus . 33
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013 33
Company Profiles .. 34
Caribbean Airlines ... 34
Royal Caribbean Cruises . 35
Meliá Hotels International ... 36
BMI Methodology ... 37
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 37
Tourism Industry ... 37
Sources.. 38Table: Arrivals And Accommodation, 2009-2016 (‘000) . 8


Table: Tourist Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 9


Table: Tourist Stopover Arrivals, 2012 . 9


Table: Tourist Stopover Arrivals, 2011 . 10


Table: Tourist Arrivals And Expenditure On Individual Islands, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) . 11


Table: BMI''s Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 18


Table: Cruise Passenger Arrivals, 2010-2011 . 26


Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 . 29


Table: Developed States'' Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 . 31


Table: Emerging Markets'' Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 . 32


Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013 . 33

Caribbean Tourism Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International
 

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