Mexico Autos Report Q3 2012

Published : June 2012
No. of Pages : 67

Price:

BMI’s optimism towards autos production in Mexico remains high as we enter the second half of 2012, despite a new quota system on auto imports having been implemented by Brazil and the possibilities of similar restrictions being implemented by Argentina.
Thanks to strong demand from Mexico''s traditional trade partner, the US, Ford Motor recently committed a hefty US$1.3bn investment to Mexico while Germany''s Volkswagen (VW) has revealed plans to produce 20% more cars in Mexico compared with last year. VW’s premium car division Audi is also reportedly looking to invest up to US$2bn in building a new plant for production of its Q5 sports utility vehicle (SUV) in Mexico by 2016, with Honda Motor currently constructing a new plant near Celaya in Central Mexico for production of its subcompact Fit model at a cost of approximately US$800mn.
All of the above developments not only nullify the possible damage to Mexican production growth prospects arising from its current trade stand-off with Brazil (see Trade section of this report for further information) but also strengthens BMI''s expectations of Mexico becoming an outperformer in Latin America in terms of production growth.
On the back of an improved outlook for growth in the US auto sector (where we are now forecasting 15% annual growth, which would take US passenger car sales over 7mn units for the first time since 2007) and considering Mexico''s ongoing efforts to diversify its autos production to the Latin American markets, we forecast Mexican auto production to grow by an average of 8.6% y-o-y between 2012 and 2016. At this rate, Mexico will not only strengthen its position as a major autos production hub in the region, but also help it to outperform its regional rivals Brazil and Argentina. Looking at trends so far in 2012, a total of 242,317 vehicles were built at production facilities in Mexico in February 2012, an increase of 24.1% y-o-y. Meanwhile, on the sales side, 74,703 vehicles were sold in the country during the month under consideration, an increase of 11.5% in comparison to February 2011, Bloomberg reports. Exports from Mexico were up 24.9% y-o-y during the same month to 194,640 units.
Indeed, considerable optimism has returned to the vehicle sales segment, thanks to a 9.8% y-o-y rise to 0.93mn units during 2011, marking an impressive recovery following a modest 8.6% y-o-y rise in 2010. Our Macroeconomic team believes that private consumption is set to post a fairly strong growth of 4.5% in 2012, up from 4.1% recorded in the first three quarters of 2011. More support to this will come from increased credit levels, prompting BMI to forecast sales growth of 8.8% y-o-y during 2012. Beyond 2013, the outlook will depend upon the pace of economic recovery in the US. For now, we maintain that average annual vehicle sales will grow at just above 8% y-o-y between 2013 and 2016.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Mexico Autos Industry SWOT 6
Mexico Political SWOT .. 7
Mexico Economic SWOT ... 7
Mexico Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends ... 9
Table: : Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012 9
Regional Overview . 13
Incentives Will Do Little To Reverse Decline In Competitiveness . 13
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings .. 18
Winners And Losers From Shifting Preferences And Sentiments .. 18
Table: : BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas 21
Table: Mexico - Economic Activity .. 24
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 25
Sales .. 25
Table: Mexico Autos Sales By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 25
Production 26
Table: Mexico Autos Production By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 27
Trade . 28
Table: Mexico Autos Trade – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 29
Economic Contribution . 30
Table Mexico Autos Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 30
Competitive Landscape . 30
Table: Mexico Vehicle Production, 2010-2011 31
Table: Mexico – Vehicle Sales To Dealerships, 2010-2011 . 31
Industry News ... 32
Passenger Cars - Forecast & Analysis 34
Table: Mexico Passenger Car Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 34
New Investments ... 34
Jumping On The Electric Car Bandwagon ... 37
Commercial Vehicles – Forecast & Analysis .. 38
Table: Mexico Commercial Vehicle Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 38
Light Commercial Vehicles .. 39
Heavy Commercial Vehicles 41
Table: Mexico Top 10 Truck Manufacturers By Production 2009-2010 .. 41
Table: Mexico Top 10 Truck Manufacturers By Sales, 2009-2010 .. 42
Motorcycles 43
Table: Mexico Motorcycle Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts , 2009-2016 43
Company News 43
Suppliers 45
Segment Trends . 46
New Investments ... 48
Domestic Going International ... 51
Company Monitor .. 53
GM''s Investments To Help Correct Regional Deficiencies 53
Company Profiles .. 55
General Motors Company (GM) .. 55
Volkswagen (VW) . 57
Chrysler ... 58
Toyota Motor ... 59
Country Snapshot: Mexico Demographic Data .. 60
Section 1: Population ... 60
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 61
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 62
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 62
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ... 62
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 62
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 63
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 63
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 63
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 .. 64
BMI Methodology ... 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 65
Sources 66Table: : Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012 . 9

Table: : BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas. 21

Table: Mexico - Economic Activity . 24

Table: Mexico Autos Sales By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 25

Table: Mexico Autos Production By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 27

Table: Mexico Autos Trade – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 29

Table Mexico Autos Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 30

Table: Mexico Vehicle Production, 2010-2011 . 31

Table: Mexico – Vehicle Sales To Dealerships, 2010-2011 . 31

Table: Mexico Passenger Car Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 34

Table: Mexico Commercial Vehicle Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 38

Table: Mexico Top 10 Truck Manufacturers By Production 2009-2010 . 41

Table: Mexico Top 10 Truck Manufacturers By Sales, 2009-2010 . 42

Table: Mexico Motorcycle Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts , 2009-2016 . 43

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 61

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 62

Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 62

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 62

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 63

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) . 63

Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 . 64

Mexico Autos Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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