India Mining Report Q3 2012

Published : June 2012
No. of Pages : 69

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India hosts a wide range of globally significant mineral resources, including: four fuel minerals (such as coal and uranium); 11 metallic minerals (such as iron); 22 minor minerals; and 52 non-metallic minerals (such as clay). The country ranks among the world''s top five nations for its core competency commodity reserves of coal and iron ore. Iron ore reserves are estimated in the region of 23bnt (bn tonnes) and account for 6% of global reserves, while coal reserves are reported to be around 255bnt. India is the world''s third-largest producer of coal, fourth-largest producer of iron ore and the fifth-largest producer of bauxite. However, only 10% of the country''s landmass has been explored due primarily to significant regulation and bureaucratic obstacles.
India''s mining industry is set to reach US$36.5bn by 2016, as output growth of key minerals remain strong. However, growth in 2012 and beyond will continue to be curtailed by India''s poor operating environment. A bright spot, however, is the increasing number of Indian companies venturing overseas to secure stable, long-term supplies of minerals such as coal and iron ore in a bid to meet fast-rising domestic demand.
India''s regulatory environment is prohibitive for investors although recently proposed legislation is a step in the right direction. In the past, mining permits/licences are issued contingent on success in the reconnaissance phase. This practice exposes firms to high levels of risk. However, the proposed 2011 mines and minerals development and regulation (MMDR) bill allows for the granting of non-exclusive reconnaissance licences and high-tech reconnaissance/exploration licences based on ability and intention to develop an area.
The new bill also calls for a system for bidding licences, which can create a market for them, increasing transparency. The current system of ''first come first serve'' in distributing natural resources for development is fraught with potential conflicts of interest and can be easily abused by officials. As of April 2012, the Indian government has decided to still distribute natural resource assets through this manner despite a Supreme Court ruling saying that all national resources must be distributed only through auction. This comes as the country awaits the still-pending decision on the 2011 MMDR bill.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
India Mining SWOT ... 7
Global Mining Outlook . 8
Table: Recent Tax Increases 11
Table: Largest Coal Projects ... 13
Table: Major Frontier Mining Projects ... 14
Asia Mining Sector Outlook .. 15
Table: Key Asia Pacific Legislative Changes... 15
Industry Trend Analysis 19
Table: India''s Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts ... 20
Industry Forecasts . 21
Bauxite: Production Growth To Return 21
Table: India''s Bauxite Production Forecasts ... 23
Coal: Energy Crisis To Drive Growth Imperative 24
Table: India''s Coal Production Forecasts ... 27
Iron Ore: Rapid Growth Foreseen But At Risk Of Depletion 27
Table: India''s Largest Iron Ore Projects . 28
Table: India''s Iron Ore Production Forecasts . 30
Uranium: Giant Tumalapalli Uranium Mine To Open In Q212 30
Table: India''s Uranium Production Forecasts . 32
Lead: Output Growth To Slow From 2014 As Vedanta Looks Overseas ... 32
Table: India''s Largest Lead Projects ... 33
Table: India''s Lead Production Forecasts ... 34
Zinc: Growth To Stall From 2013 . 34
Table: India''s Largest Zinc Projects 35
Table: India''s Zinc Production Forecasts 36
Regulatory Structure .. 37
Table: Key Changes In Licence/Lease Granting In The 2011 MMDR . 39
Table: Current Royalty Rates And Changes Of Proposed Mining Bill . 40
Business Environment .. 42
Table: Asia Mining Risk-Reward Ratings 42
Competitive Landscape . 46
Table: India''s Comparative Metrics 48
Company Profiles ... 49
Hindustan Copper 49
Coal India Limited (CIL) . 52
Table: Coal India''s Financial Data . 55
NMDC . 56
Table: NMDC''s Financial Data ... 58
Vedanta Resources ... 59
Table: Vedanta Resources'' Financial Data.. 62
Commodities Forecasts. 63
Copper To Edge Lower 63
Aluminium: No Sustained Recovery Ahead .. 63
Oil: Prices To Pull Back .. 64
Gold: Still Bullish 65
Business Environment Ratings Methodology. 66
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators . 67
Table: Weighting Of Components 68Table: Recent Tax Increases . 11

Table: Largest Coal Projects . 13

Table: Major Frontier Mining Projects . 14

Table: Key Asia Pacific Legislative Changes. 15

Table: India''s Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts . 20

Table: India''s Bauxite Production Forecasts . 23

Table: India''s Coal Production Forecasts . 27

Table: India''s Largest Iron Ore Projects . 28

Table: India''s Iron Ore Production Forecasts . 30

Table: India''s Uranium Production Forecasts . 32

Table: India''s Largest Lead Projects . 33

Table: India''s Lead Production Forecasts . 34

Table: India''s Largest Zinc Projects . 35

Table: India''s Zinc Production Forecasts . 36

Table: Key Changes In Licence/Lease Granting In The 2011 MMDR . 39

Table: Current Royalty Rates And Changes Of Proposed Mining Bill . 40

Table: Asia Mining Risk-Reward Ratings . 42

Table: India''s Comparative Metrics . 48

Table: Coal India''s Financial Data . 55

Table: NMDC''s Financial Data . 58

Table: Vedanta Resources'' Financial Data. 62

Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators . 67

Table: Weighting Of Components . 68

India Mining Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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