Sri Lanka Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 93

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Regulatory data show that the Sri Lankan mobile market grew by approximately 6.1% during 2011, ending the year with 18.319mn subscribers. This was less than had been hoped for and appears to be due to a significant scaling down of the customer base reported by Airtel Srilanka, nominal growth at Etisalat Lanka and a possible reduction of the customer base reported by Hutchison Lanka. Although there seems to be a stronger push from the leading operators for postpaid and value-added services, the high cost of these offerings relative to the low-cost voice and SMS services, most Sri Lankans seem to favour, means that growing these new revenue streams will be difficult at best.
With mobile market leader Dialog Axiata having stopped providing ARPU breakdowns in Q211, it is difficult to plot the trajectory of advanced mobile services in the country. However, new data from the regulator tracking the growth of mobile internet subscribers, suggests that some of the country's more affluent consumers are seeing the benefit of non-voice data services, a trend that Hutchison Lanka may be responding to now that it has finally decided to launch its 3G service, six years after receiving its licence to do so.
The regulator believes there were 485,000 mobile internet subscribers in the country at the end of 2011, up by 142.5% y-o-y. However, with internet-capable 2.5G systems based on EDGE and GPRS technologies in widespread use, it seems unlikely that 3G has reached a tipping point just yet. We have, however, slightly increased our 3G subscriber forecast and envisage customer numbers reaching 350,000 by the end of 2012 and 1.077mn by 2016. By the end of the forecast period, 3G will account for 5.2% of a total mobile market of 20.615mn mobile subscribers.
Hutchison's push into 3G may also have been prompted by the 35% increase in its customer base in 2011, following on from a 76% increase in 2010. However, the operator is careful not to disclose actual subscriber numbers and BMI increasingly believes that around 400,000 of the 1.855mn customers thought to be registered with the company were actually inactive. Hutchison often includes inactive accounts in the customer bases it reports for its other operations around the world, so we have taken the decision to award it a lower user base in the quarter's update, which also drags on the market forecast and Sri Lanka's Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR).
Reduced scores in four out of five RRR categories kept Sri Lanka at the bottom of the ratings table relative to its Asian peers this quarter. Notwithstanding the gloomier outlook for the mobile and fixed-line sectors, there is also the weak economic outlook to consider. Therefore, Sri Lanka remains a comparatively poor investment prospect despite government-led efforts to revitalise the market by promoting the development of a next-generation access network (NGN), which is being built by incumbent Sri Lanka Telecom.

SWOTS .. 6
Sri Lanka Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) SWOT ... 6
Sri Lanka Mobile SWOT 7
Sri Lanka Political SWOT .. 8
Sri Lanka Economic SWOT 9
Sri Lanka Business Environment SWOT .. 10
Risk/Reward Ratings . 11
Asia Pacific ... 11
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 .. 16
Sri Lanka ... 17
Industry Forecasts . 19
Mobile ... 19
Table: Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 19
ARPU 21
Table: BMI Telecoms – Blended Mobile ARPU – Historical Data And Forecasts (LKR), 2009-2016 . 21
Fixed Line . 23
Table: Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 23
Internet.. 24
Table: Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 24
Market Data Analysis . 26
Mobile Market . 26
Table: Sri Lanka Wireless Market, Q411 . 27
Subscriber Mix And ARPU... 30
3G 31
Mobile Contract Wins And Developments 33
Table: Selected Mobile Network Developments ... 33
Mobile Operator Data .. 34
Sri Lanka Mobile Market Overview . 34
Table Sri Lanka - Dialog . 34
Table: Sri Lanka - Mobitel ... 35
Table: Sri Lanka - Etisalat Lanka 36
Table: Airtel Srilanka .. 36
Table: Sri Lanka - Hutchison Lanka 37
Mobile Content 38
Regional Outlook . 38
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 ... 40
Country Outlook .. 44
Value-Added Services Timeline 46
Table: Selected VAS Services ... 46
Fixed Line . 47
Table: Sri Lanka Fixed-Line Market, Q411 . 48
Provincial Fixed-Line Markets . 50
Provincial Distribution of Fixed-Line Phones, Q411 ... 50
Internet and Broadband 52
WiMAX 55
Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments . 56
Table: Wireline Developments, 2009-2012 .. 56
Regulatory Environment ... 57
Table: Sri Lanka: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 57
Competition . 57
Licensing .. 58
Table: Licences Granted Under S.17, Sri Lanka Telecommunications Act 1991 (as amended) ... 58
Industry Developments . 58
Competitive Landscape 60
Competitor Analysis .. 60
Table: Key Players – Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector. 60
Company Monitor .. 61
Samsung Electronics . 61
Table: Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) ... 62
Operator Profiles ... 67
Sri Lanka Telecom (SLT) . 67
Hutchison Lanka .. 73
Dialog Axiata ... 76
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ... 80
Fixed Line . 80
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview .. 80
Broadband 81
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 81
Mobile ... 82
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 82
Demographic Outlook ... 83
Sri Lanka's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 84
Sri Lanka's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ... 85
Sri Lanka's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 86
Sri Lanka's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 86
Glossary Of Terms . 87
Table: Glossary Of Terms 87
BMI Methodology ... 88
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 88
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 88
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .. 90
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 90
Ratings System . 90
Indicators . 90
Table: Ratings Indicators . 91
Weighting . 92
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 92
Sources 92Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 . 16

Table: Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 19

Table: BMI Telecoms – Blended Mobile ARPU – Historical Data And Forecasts (LKR), 2009-2016 . 21

Table: Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 23

Table: Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 24

Table: Sri Lanka Wireless Market, Q411 . 27

Table: Selected Mobile Network Developments . 33

Table Sri Lanka - Dialog . 34

Table: Sri Lanka - Mobitel . 35

Table: Sri Lanka - Etisalat Lanka . 36

Table: Airtel Srilanka . 36

Table: Sri Lanka - Hutchison Lanka . 37

Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 . 40

Table: Selected VAS Services . 46

Table: Sri Lanka Fixed-Line Market, Q411 . 48

Table: Wireline Developments, 2009-2012 . 56

Table: Sri Lanka: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities . 57

Table: Licences Granted Under S.17, Sri Lanka Telecommunications Act 1991 (as amended) . 58

Table: Key Players – Sri Lanka Telecoms Sector. 60

Table: Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) . 62

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . 80

Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 81

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 82

Table: Glossary Of Terms . 87

Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . 88

Table: Ratings Indicators . 91

Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 92

Sri Lanka Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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