South Africa Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 67

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BMI’s latest South Africa Defence and Security Report examines the country’s strategic position in Africa and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future in the context of South Africa’s ongoing assumption of a regional leadership role and security challenges, including piracy and poaching. In addition, the report examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. This quarter’s general conclusion is that while the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) still requires funding in order to get some long-overdue procurement programmes back on track, the publication of a new draft Defence Review in April 2012 should begin the process of setting the SANDF on a firm footing to perform its future missions.
While there is a risk of political instability as the ruling ANC gears up for a leadership election in late 2012, the main challenges to South African security include weak border controls – which are set to be strengthened by new military deployments – as well as transnational crime in the form of poaching and piracy. The SANDF is preparing to increase its patrol activities in the Mozambique Channel, for example, to deal with these problems.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: 􀂃 BMI looks in detail at the proposals included in the new Defence Review – South Africa’s first in 14 years – which aims to set procurement priorities in the short to medium term, as well as lay down the country’s strategic goals for the next 30 years. In particular, the SANDF is to be reshaped to fulfil its role as one of the region’s leading militaries, with an eye on greater African Union contributions in the future.
􀂃 The government also aims to build up the national defence industry, having set up a new Defence Industry Council with the intention of promoting local defence companies and strengthening the South African defence sector over time.
􀂃 The FY12-13 defence budget had been increased by 10% compared with last year, signalling the government’s seriousness about transforming the armed forces.
􀂃 Procurement programmes are updated, with the new Defence Review paving the way for the Medium Term Expenditure Framework. New offshore and inshore patrol vessels for the navy and new armoured vehicles for the army are expected to be acquired soon.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
South Africa Security SWOT .. 6
South Africa Defence Industry SWOT 7
South Africa Political SWOT . 8
South Africa Economic SWOT ... 8
South Africa Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook . 10
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013. 10
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula ... 10
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 ... 15
Wild Cards To Watch ... 19
Security Risk Ratings 22
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings 22
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 23
Political Overview ... 24
Domestic Politics .. 24
Zuma In Pole Position Despite Mounting Criticism . 24
Long-Term Political Outlook 26
Political Trials And Tribulations Over The Coming Decade ... 26
Security Overview .. 30
Organised Crime . 35
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 36
Armed Forces .. 36
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 38
Market Overview . 39
Arms Trade Overview .. 39
Procurement Trends And Developments .. 39
Latest Developments 41
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 45
Armed Forces .. 45
Table: South Africa’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ... 45
Table: South Africa’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 45
Defence Expenditure 46
Table: South Africa’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 .. 46
Table: South Africa’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) .. 47
Defence Trade .. 47
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 47
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 48
On The Ground: Slow But Steady Growth, Political Risk Running High . 48
Table: South Africa – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .. 51
Company Profiles ... 53
Aerosud 53
Land Systems South Africa – BAE Systems .. 54
Denel ... 55
Grintek Defence & Technologies . 57
Reutech 58
Thales South Africa (Pty) Ltd ... 59
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data . 61
Section 1: Population ... 61
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 61
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ... 62
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 62
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 62
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 62
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 63
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 63
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 63
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 .. 64
Methodology ... 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 65
Defence Industry .. 65
Sources 66Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 . 15

Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings . 22

Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 23

Table: South Africa's Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 45

Table: South Africa's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 45

Table: South Africa's Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 46

Table: South Africa's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 47

Table: South Africa – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 51

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 61

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 62

Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 62

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 62

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 63

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) . 63

Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 . 64

South Africa Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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