Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 72

Price:

BMI View: While wheat production is forecast to decline in 2012/13, we now expect the fall to be less severe owing to limited grains exports. However, we believe the government will go ahead with its plan to phase out wheat production altogether in the next decade. For dairy, we continue to see great growth opportunities for companies operating in the sector, with moderating milk prices boosting margins and increased investment helping to support production. For livestock, the country is very reliant on poultry imports, and slow growth in domestic production has kept prices high.
Key Forecasts 􀂃 Wheat production growth to 2015/16: -46.9% to 669,900 tonnes. Wheat production will continue to decrease in the coming years on the back of the government's program to phase out production.
􀂃 Poultry consumption growth to 2016: 17.2% to 1.6mn tonnes. Demand growth will be supported by population growth and rising personal incomes.
􀂃 Milk production growth to 2015/16: 17.2% to 2.1mn tonnes. High milk prices and rising demand will help to drive output. We also highlight that this growth is from a low base; the country's dairy industry and capacity is still negligible and has significant room to expand over the coming years.
􀂃 2012 real GDP growth: 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from 6.8% in 2011. Predicted to average 4.0% from 2011 to 2016.
􀂃 2012 consumer price inflation: 4.9% average, down from 5.0% 2011. 􀂃 BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.3% y-o-y increase to US$2.2bn in 2011/12, forecast to increase by 3.6% on average per annum between 2010/11 and 2015/16. Industry Outlook The US Department of Agriculture forecasts total wheat imports to reach 2.5mn tonnes in 2012/13, of which 1.8mn tonnes will be imported for human consumption. The country's grain purchase agency normally issues tenders for 14% and 12.5% protein content wheat from the EU, Canada, the US and Australia. However, the agency has occasionally received some high-quality wheat shipments from Brazil, Argentina, Latvia and Lithuania. Since 2011/12, Saudi Arabia's animal feed processors have been importing feed-quality wheat with up to 11% protein content, especially from Ukraine.
We have highlighted Saudi Arabia's Almarai as one of the strongest performing major companies in the Gulf food and drink space over the past few years. It has a very strong dairy business and has taken some positive steps to diversify both in terms of geography and business categories. It looks well placed to continue growing domestically, in the wider Gulf region and further out into the Middle East and North Africa. Almarai grew its headline sales by nearly 15% in 2011, a strong result in what could have been a challenging year.
Poultry prices in Saudi Arabia have significantly risen in the past year and are expected to stay elevated in the medium term. This is owing to insufficient production growth in the country as well as declining output from major producers such as France and Brazil, from which the country's poultry imports come.
Also, local poultry farmers have complained of increasing production costs linked to high feed costs.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Saudi Arabia Agriculture Swot .. 7
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT ... 8
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT . 9
Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT .. 9
Supply Demand Analysis .. 10
Saudi Arabia Livestock Outlook 10
Table: Saudi Arabia Poultry Production & Consumption ... 11
Table: Saudi Arabia Poultry Production & Consumption ... 12
Saudi Arabia Grains Outlook 13
Table: Saudi Arabia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 14
Table: Saudi Arabia Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 14
Table: Saudi Arabia Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 14
Table: Saudi Arabia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .. 18
Table: Saudi Arabia Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: Saudi Arabia Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .. 18
Saudi Arabia Dairy Outlook . 19
Table: Saudi Arabia Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20
Table: Saudi Arabia Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 20
Table: Saudi Arabia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20
Table: Saudi Arabia Milk Production & Consumption 23
Table: Saudi Arabia Butter Production & Consumption . 23
Table: Saudi Arabia Cheese Production & Consumption 24
Company Profiles ... 25
Saudi Dairy and Food Stuffs Company 25
Commodity Price Analysis 28
Monthly Softs Update 28
Cocoa - All Eyes On The Mid-Crop . 29
Coffee - Brazil Leads Improved Supply 31
Palm Oil - Strong Demand To Support Prices . 33
Sugar - Surplus Finally Dragging Prices Lower .. 35
Cotton - Finding A Base .. 37
Select Grains & Softs: Performance & BMI Forecasts 39
Monthly Grains Update 40
Corn: Moving Towards Support .. 40
Soybean: Overstretched ... 41
Wheat: Downtrend Remains In Place .. 42
Rice: Temporary Strength 43
Economic Outlook .. 44
Table: Saudi Arabia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .. 46
Downstream Analysis 47
Food.. 50
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts .. 50
Table: Confectionery Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts ... 51
Mass Grocery Retail . 52
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts ... 53
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format .. 53
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts ... 54
Global Food & Drink View ... 55
Food & Drink Roundup ... 55
Food Inflation Less Of An Issue In 2012 .. 55
Domestic Demand Uncertainties Abound In Developed Markets 56
EM-Oriented Companies To Perform Strongly 58
Table: Core Views ... 65
Country Snapshot: Saudi Arabia Demographic Data . 66
Section 1: Population ... 66
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 66
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ... 67
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 67
Table: Education, 2003-2005 .. 67
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 67
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 68
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2006 .. 68
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 68
BMI Forecast Modelling . 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 69Table: Saudi Arabia Poultry Production & Consumption . 11

Table: Saudi Arabia Poultry Production & Consumption . 12

Table: Saudi Arabia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 14

Table: Saudi Arabia Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 14

Table: Saudi Arabia Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 14

Table: Saudi Arabia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 18

Table: Saudi Arabia Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 18

Table: Saudi Arabia Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 18

Table: Saudi Arabia Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20

Table: Saudi Arabia Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20

Table: Saudi Arabia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20

Table: Saudi Arabia Milk Production & Consumption . 23

Table: Saudi Arabia Butter Production & Consumption . 23

Table: Saudi Arabia Cheese Production & Consumption . 24

Table: Saudi Arabia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 46

Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts . 50

Table: Confectionery Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts . 51

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts . 53

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format . 53

Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts . 54

Table: Core Views . 65

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 66

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 67

Table: Education, 2003-2005 . 67

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 67

Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2006 . 68

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) . 68

Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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