Romania Retail Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 71

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The Romanian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concerns about the impact on Romania’s economic outlook of growing political risk in the country and its high exposure to peripheral eurozone banks.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Romanian retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of the weaker outlook for the global economy on the Romanian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
We analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Romanian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Romanian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 37% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 59%. The country comes fifth out of 10 in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), although it outperforms slightly on the rewards side.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to grow by nearly 45%, compared with 22.3% for overall food sales. MGR is predicted to expand its share of the total food market to 58.6% by 2016, when value sales should reach US$12.02bn.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that large-scale infrastructure improvement is ongoing and that Romania will receive substantial influxes of EU funds and loans over the coming years. The EUR7.1bn (US$9.2bn) investment into rural development during 2007-2013 forms part of the national budget.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: 􀂃 BMI has revised down Romania’s real GDP growth forecast to 1.4% and 2.3% in 2012 and 2013, from 2.5% and 2.9% respectively.
􀂃 BMI has revised down its 2012 private consumption growth forecast to 2.8%, from 3.5% previously. However, we note that this is still slightly higher than our 2011 private consumption growth estimate of 2.5%, as less austere fiscal policy allows the limited recovery in private consumption to continue.
􀂃 BMI has revised down its short-term annual growth forecasts for foreign tourist arrivals to slight negative growth in 2012 of -0.5% and positive growth of 2.3% in 2013. The long-term outlook for arrivals is favourable, bolstered by the stimulus provided by the EU, the establishment of tourism promotion offices overseas and an enhanced marketing programme to boost interest in the country.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Romania Retail Business Environment SWOT 7
Romania Political SWOT 8
Romania Economic SWOT .. 8
Market Overview .. 9
Current Trends .. 10
Key Players ... 14
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 18
Consumer Outlook 18
Retail Growth Outlook .. 20
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2016 20
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 22
Table: Romania Economic Activity, 2011-2016 25
Regional Retail Outlook 26
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook . 26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016. 26
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 27
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 28
Regional Retail Trends.. 28
Business Environment Outlook ... 35
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings . 35
Romania’s Retail Rating ... 36
Rewards 36
Risks .. 36
Mass Grocery Retail .. 37
Romania MGR Industry SWOT . 37
Market Overview ... 38
Leading Retailers .. 39
Table: Structure Of Romania’s MGR Sector – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2011 ... 42
Table: Structure Of Romania’s MGR Sector – Sales By Format, 2004-2011 42
Table: Structure Of Romania’s MGR Sector – Average Sales Value Per Retail Outlet , 2011 .. 43
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 43
Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2009-2016 45
Table: MGR By Format, 2011 And 2021 (%) 45
Industry Developments .. 46
Automotives ... 51
Romania Autos Industry SWOT . 51
Market Overview ... 52
Used Vehicles 54
Ford Motor ... 55
Automobile Dacia . 56
Suppliers ... 56
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 59
Table: Romania Autos Sales, Production And Trade, 2011-2016 . 59
Trade . 62
OTC Pharmaceuticals 63
Romania Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT . 63
Market Overview ... 65
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 66
Table: Romania OTC Medicine Sales By Subsector, 2007-2010 (RONmn) .. 67
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016 ... 68
BMI Methodology ... 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 69
Sources.. 70Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2016 . 20

Table: Romania Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 25

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016. 26

Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) . 27

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 . 28

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings . 35

Table: Structure Of Romania's MGR Sector – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2011 . 42

Table: Structure Of Romania's MGR Sector – Sales By Format, 2004-2011 . 42

Table: Structure Of Romania's MGR Sector – Average Sales Value Per Retail Outlet , 2011 . 43

Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2009-2016 . 45

Table: MGR By Format, 2011 And 2021 (%) . 45

Table: Romania Autos Sales, Production And Trade, 2011-2016 . 59

Table: Romania OTC Medicine Sales By Subsector, 2007-2010 (RONmn) . 67

Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016 . 68

Romania Retail Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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