Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Romania Security SWOT 7
Romania Defence Industry SWOT.. 8
Romania Political SWOT ... 9
Romania Economic SWOT . 9
Romania Business Environment SWOT ... 10
Global Political Outlook . 11
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013. 11
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula ... 11
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 ... 15
Wild Cards To Watch ... 19
Europe Security Overview . 22
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s ... 22
Europe In A Global Context. 22
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade . 22
What If The Eurozone Collapses? Political Risks Assessed . 29
Security Risk Analysis ... 33
BMI’s Security Ratings 33
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings ... 33
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ... 34
Political Overview ... 36
Domestic Politics . 36
Opposition On Course For Election Victory, But Challenges Remain . 36
Long-Term Political Outlook 38
EU Membership Underpins Long-Term Stability . 38
Security Overview .. 42
Internal Security Situation ... 42
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups ... 42
External Security Situation .. 43
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 44
Armed Forces .. 44
International Deployment And Joint Exercises 47
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 48
Market Overview . 49
Industry Trends And Developments . 50
Arms Trade Overview .. 52
Procurement Trends And Developments .. 52
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 54
Armed Forces .. 54
Table: Romania’s Armed Forces, 2004-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 54
Table: Romania’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 54
Defence Expenditure 54
Table: Romania’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 55
Table: Romania’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 56
Defence Trade .. 56
Macroeconomic Forecast . 56
Eurozone Bank Exposure Major Risk To Stability ... 56
Table: Romania – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 59
Company Profiles ... 60
Aerostar ... 60
EADS/Eurocopter Romania . 62
IAR SA Brasov . 64
MFA Mizil 65
Romaero .. 66
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data 67
Section 1: Population ... 67
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 68
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 68
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 69
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 69
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$) 69
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010 .. 70
BMI Methodology ... 71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 71
Defence Industry .. 71
Sources 72Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 . 15
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings . 33
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 34
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups . 42
Table: Romania's Armed Forces, 2004-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 54
Table: Romania's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 54
Table: Romania's Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 55
Table: Romania's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 56
Table: Romania – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 59
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 68
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 69
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$) . 69
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010 . 70