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Romania Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

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No. of Pages : 73
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Romania stands in a strategically important position in Europe. The country is flanked by the former Soviet Union republics of Ukraine and Moldova. It also borders Hungary to the west, the former Yugoslavia to the south east and Bulgaria to the south west. In addition, Romania is now a member of NATO. This report examines the transition of Romania’s defence posture as a former Warsaw Pact nation into an active participant in NATO. However, as the report will conclude, while Romania has aspirations to become a full and active NATO partner, the modernisation of the country’s armed forces will be largely guided by the available funding that Bucharest has to invest in its armed forces.
Romania is continuing its process of defence modernisation despite the financial challenges that the country is currently facing, as a result of the overall economic slump from the eurozone area. To this end, Romania is mid-way through its defence modernisation roadmap, which it expects to complete in circa 2015, although economic challenges could cause this date to be pushed back.
In order to complete the modernisation, a number of key procurement initiatives are planned, not least of which is the acquisition of new multirole combat aircraft to replace the ageing MiG-21A/B/C jets currently operated by the air force. A similarly important acquisition will be the purchase of new Surfaceto- Air Missiles (SAMs) to replace several antiquated Cold War-era systems, which remain in service with the army and air force. Although the new SAM systems have yet to be procured, the air defence of Romania has experienced some recent improvements with the activation of an Air Sovereignty Operations Centre (ASOC) to help defend the country’s airspace, by integrating imagery delivered from military air surveillance and civil air traffic control radar systems. As regards other equipment, Romania will, in the future, need to launch the procurement of communications and battle management systems to equip its army-level brigade and above; although it has already made some important advances in terms of the revitalisation of its command and control capabilities via the implementation of the RIFS system (see below).
At the strategic level, the US-Romanian defence relationship deepened further in 2011 with the announcement that Romania would be one of the two European sites selected to host ground-to-air ballistic missile interceptors as part of the US-led so-called European Phased Adaptive Approach to ballistic missile defence. Romania will receive RIM-116 SM-3 family SAMs to this end from 2015, which will be progressively upgraded until they have the capability to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles.
As far as the Romanian defence industry is concerned, a number of companies producing materiel continue to be involved in several domestic and international procurement initiatives. For example, Romanian companies will assist the development of a mobile ground control station for a forthcoming procurement of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles by NATO. Moreover, Romanian companies have been involved in the upgrade of military equipment for international customers, such as the Royal Air Force.
For the short term, Romania is likely to continue on its path of modernisation, finances permitting, as it strives to become a full and active participant in NATO. Overseas deployments will continue although Romania, like several other NATO members stationed there, will begin to reduce its presence in Afghanistan from around 2014/2015. However, the financial constraints which Romania is experiencing mean that the country is performing its defence modernisation at a comparatively slow pace. This has resulted in very little activity occurring during the first quarter of 2012 and, as a consequence, we have not revised any forecasts in this report.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Romania Security SWOT 7
Romania Defence Industry SWOT.. 8
Romania Political SWOT ... 9
Romania Economic SWOT . 9
Romania Business Environment SWOT ... 10
Global Political Outlook . 11
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013. 11
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula ... 11
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 ... 15
Wild Cards To Watch ... 19
Europe Security Overview . 22
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s ... 22
Europe In A Global Context. 22
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade . 22
What If The Eurozone Collapses? Political Risks Assessed . 29
Security Risk Analysis ... 33
BMI’s Security Ratings 33
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings ... 33
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ... 34
Political Overview ... 36
Domestic Politics . 36
Opposition On Course For Election Victory, But Challenges Remain . 36
Long-Term Political Outlook 38
EU Membership Underpins Long-Term Stability . 38
Security Overview .. 42
Internal Security Situation ... 42
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups ... 42
External Security Situation .. 43
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 44
Armed Forces .. 44
International Deployment And Joint Exercises 47
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 48
Market Overview . 49
Industry Trends And Developments . 50
Arms Trade Overview .. 52
Procurement Trends And Developments .. 52
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 54
Armed Forces .. 54
Table: Romania’s Armed Forces, 2004-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 54
Table: Romania’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 54
Defence Expenditure 54
Table: Romania’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 55
Table: Romania’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 56
Defence Trade .. 56
Macroeconomic Forecast . 56
Eurozone Bank Exposure Major Risk To Stability ... 56
Table: Romania – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 59
Company Profiles ... 60
Aerostar ... 60
EADS/Eurocopter Romania . 62
IAR SA Brasov . 64
MFA Mizil 65
Romaero .. 66
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data 67
Section 1: Population ... 67
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 68
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 68
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 69
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 69
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$) 69
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010 .. 70
BMI Methodology ... 71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 71
Defence Industry .. 71
Sources 72Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 . 15


Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings . 33


Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 34


Table: Regional Insurgent Groups . 42


Table: Romania's Armed Forces, 2004-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 54


Table: Romania's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 54


Table: Romania's Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 55


Table: Romania's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 56


Table: Romania – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 59


Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 68


Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 69


Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$) . 69


Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010 . 70

Romania Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International
 

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