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Pakistan Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 96

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The long-awaited 3G auction in Pakistan has been indefinitely delayed without an official reason from the government. Local media has reported a range of explanations that include a lack of interest from operators and the absence of an international consultant to supervise the process. The lack of transparency is worrying for the business environment, while the continued delay in launching 3G services is detrimental to the development of Pakistani’s mobile industry. Mobile operators are largely still relying on traditional voice services and SMS for revenue, and profitability has been under pressure.
Besides posing a negative effect on the telecoms industry, the government has also lost a valuable revenue stream. The government had expected to collect PKR30bn from the 3G auction and at the same time create jobs and give impetus to growth in the IT sector. We believe that the postponement pressured the government to warn Etisalat to pay the US$800mn it owes from the firm's acquisition of a 26% stake in Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL) in 2006.
BMI's Country Risk team maintains that Pakistan's current account balance will continue to face downside pressure in the months ahead, leading to a further widening of its existing deficit. With regard to the country's terms of trade, the ratio between global cotton and oil prices is vital, as more than half of Pakistan's exports goods are of textile products and nearly a third of its import bill is made up of oil imports.
We have largely retained our forecast scenarios for Pakistan’s telecoms sectors. At the end of 2016, we expect 145.135mn mobile subscribers, representing a penetration rate of 75.3%. The growing demand for mobile services will also have a positive impact on the broadband industry. We envisage mobile broadband solutions WiMAX and 3G to drive subscriber growth in the broadband sector. By end-2016, we forecast 6.120mn broadband subscribers, an equivalent of 3.2% penetration rate. Meanwhile, we expect the fixed-line market to contract to 4.637mn at the end of 2016.
Pakistan rose to 11th position in this quarter’s BMI Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings in spite of a decline in its Telecoms Rating score. Looking ahead into the next fiscal year (FY2012/13, July-June), we expect a recovery in real GDP growth (after a two-year slowdown) as domestic demand improves on the back of easing domestic macroeconomic conditions (mainly the loosening of monetary policy). That said, we highlight that the recovery sits on unstable ground, considering the ongoing risk of the government's precarious fiscal situation and lingering energy crisis. As such, our 3.0% real GDP growth projection for FY2012/13 remains below consensus (which is forecasting a 4.1% growth rate).

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Pakistan Wireline SWOT Analysis . 6
Pakistan Mobile SWOT Analysis 7
Pakistan Political SWOT ... 8
Pakistan Economic SWOT . 9
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT 10
Risk/Reward Ratings . 11
Asia Pacific .. 11
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings . 16
Pakistan ... 16
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 19
Mobile ... 19
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts 19
ARPU 21
Table: Pakistan Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU – Historical Data And Forecasts (PKR) 21
Fixed Line . 23
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts ... 23
Internet.. 25
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts ... 25
Market Data Analysis . 27
Mobile ... 27
Table: Pakistan Mobile Market, February 2012 .. 28
Table: Mobile Base Stations By Operator 29
Subscriber Mix And ARPU... 30
3G 31
Mobile Contract Wins ... 33
Table: Mobile Contract Wins ... 33
Mobile Operator Data .. 35
Table: Pakistan Market Overview 35
Table: Zong Telecoms .. 35
Table: Mobilink 36
Table: Telenor . 37
Table: Ufone 38
Table: Warid Telecom .. 38
Mobile Content . 39
Regional Outlook . 39
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 ... 40
Country Outlook .. 45
Value-Added Services Timeline . 47
Table: Selected VAS Services (2009-2011) .. 47
Fixed Line . 48
Table: Pakistan Fixed-Line Market, September 2011 .. 48
Wireless Local Loop (WLL) . 49
Table: Pakistan Wireless Local Loop Market, February 2012 . 49
Pakistan WLL Sites By Operator . 51
Broadband 52
Broadband Platforms ... 54
Wireline Developments . 57
Table: Wireline (Fixed-Line and Broadband) Developments ... 57
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments .. 58
Table: Pakistan’s Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 58
Regulatory Developments . 60
Industry Developments .. 61
Competitive Landscape 63
Key Players .. 63
Table: Key Companies – Pakistan Telecommunications Sector ... 63
Company Monitor .. 64
Samsung Electronics . 64
Table: Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) ... 64
Company Profiles .. 69
Pakistan Telecommunication Company Ltd (PTCL) 69
TeleCard .. 73
Mobilink ... 75
Telenor Pakistan .. 78
Warid Telecom . 81
Market Overview 83
Fixed Line 83
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview .. 83
Mobile .. 84
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 84
Broadband ... 85
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 85
Demographic Outlook ... 86
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) .. 87
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .. 88
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .. 89
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 89
Glossary Of Terms . 90
Table: Glossary Of Terms 90
BMI Methodology ... 91
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 91
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 91
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .. 93
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 93
Table: Ratings Indicators . 94
Weighting . 95
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 95
Sources 95Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings . 16

Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts . 19

Table: Pakistan Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU – Historical Data And Forecasts (PKR) . 21

Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts . 23

Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts . 25

Table: Pakistan Mobile Market, February 2012 . 28

Table: Mobile Base Stations By Operator . 29

Table: Mobile Contract Wins . 33

Table: Pakistan Market Overview . 35

Table: Zong Telecoms . 35

Table: Mobilink. 36

Table: Telenor . 37

Table: Ufone . 38

Table: Warid Telecom . 38

Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 . 40

Table: Selected VAS Services (2009-2011) . 47

Table: Pakistan Fixed-Line Market, September 2011 . 48

Table: Pakistan Wireless Local Loop Market, February 2012 . 49

Table: Wireline (Fixed-Line and Broadband) Developments . 57

Table: Pakistan's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities . 58

Table: Key Companies – Pakistan Telecommunications Sector . 63

Table: Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) . 64

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . 83

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 84

Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 85

Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 87

Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 88

Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 89

Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 89

Table: Glossary Of Terms . 90

Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . 91

Table: Ratings Indicators . 94

Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 95

Pakistan Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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