Oman Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 88

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During this quarter’s update to BMI’s Oman Telecommunications report, we have updated our five-year growth forecast for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors based latest regulatory and operator data for YE11. It also includes updates to our mobile ARPU forecast as well as analysis of recent regulatory and industry development expected to affect the telecoms market.
According to market data published by Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) of Oman and the country’s two biggest telecoms operators, BMI calculates there were 4.787mn mobile subscribers in Oman at the end of December 2011. This was a market penetration rate of 168.2%, slightly up from 165.5% at the end of December 2010. The mobile market in Oman experienced mixed fortunes in 2011, with net losses during the first three months of the year followed by a steady by muted growth in the last nine months. As a result, the market grew by just 3.9%, or net additions of around 180,000 subscribers in 2011, compared to growth of 16.2%, or net additions of 641,000 subscribers, in 2010. BMI attributes the market’s relatively weak performance in 2011 to the effects of inactive SIM discounting and market saturation, factors we expect to rein in growth during our forecast period, through to 2016. We therefore envisage slower growth over the next five years, with the mobile subscriber base forecast to reach 5.297mn, equivalent to a penetration rate of 170.4%, by 2016.
One of the biggest changes to our forecast this quarter relates to the 3G segment where the regulator now publishes actual data for active 3G subscriptions in addition to estimates for the number of 3G-enabled handsets in the country. According to the regulator, there were 1.076mn 3G subscriptions in Oman at the end of December 2011, comprising 520,793 standard subscriptions via handsets and 555,461 dedicated data subscriptions via modems and data cards. This figure was equivalent to just 50.3% of the estimated 2.140mn 3G handsets in the country, resulting in a significant downgrade to our 3G historical data and forecast. Our new historical data are based on the proportion of active subscriptions to 3G handsets in the market, while our new forecasts, which also incorporate other industry-specific and macroeconomic factors expected to affect the 3G market, envisage the number of 3G subscriptions to reach 1.7mn by 2016. This would be equivalent to 32.1% of the total mobile subscriber base, up from 22.5% in 2011. Oman’s fixed-line and internet sectors performed according to expectations in 2011, although we have revised our 2011 estimates to reflect actual data from the regulator. According to the TRA, there were 287,323 fixed-line connections and 634,000 broadband connections at the end of 2011. Oman’s fixedline sector is bucking the trend of net losses experienced by other markets in the region and beyond, while the broadband sector is benefiting from a combination of rising demand for data services and considerable public and private investments into next generation access technologies in the country. We expect growth of fixed-line connections to tail off during the latter stages of our forecast period, with penetration rate of 9.6% by 2016. On the other hand, the internet sector is expected to maintain strong growth during the same period with broadband penetration rising from 22.3% in 2011 to 40.8% by 2016.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Oman Mobile SWOT .. 6
Oman Wireline SWOT 7
Oman Political SWOT 8
Oman Economic SWOT . 8
Oman Business Environment SWOT .. 9
Business Environment .. 10
Middle East And Africa 10
Table: MENA Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings Q312 ... 14
Oman ... 14
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 17
Mobile ... 17
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 17
ARPU 19
Table: Monthly Blended ARPU, 2009-2016 . 19
Fixed Line . 20
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 20
Internet.. 21
Table: Oman Internet Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 21
Market Data Analysis . 23
Mobile ... 23
Market Shares .. 24
Table: Oman Mobile Subscribers – Q411 25
Table: Oman Mobile Net Additions Market . 25
Customer Divisions .. 25
ARPU ... 27
MVNOs 28
3G 29
Mobile Contract Wins ... 32
Table: Mobile Contract Wins ... 32
Mobile Operator Data .. 33
Table: Oman Mobile Market Overview 33
Table: Omantel 33
Table: Nawras . 34
Table: Resellers ... 34
Mobile Content . 35
Regional Outlook . 35
Country Outlook .. 39
Mobile Banking 40
Value-Added Services Timeline . 40
Table: Selected VAS Services ... 40
Fixed Line . 42
Fixed Wireless . 43
VoIP . 43
Incumbent Privatisation ... 44
Internet.. 45
Broadband ... 46
ARPU ... 49
Mobile Broadband ... 50
Wireline Contract Wins . 52
Table: Wireline Contract Wins 52
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments .. 53
Table: Oman Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ... 53
Legislation And Market Liberalisation 53
Regulation 54
Licensing And Spectrum... 54
Industry Developments .. 56
Competitive Landscape 58
Key Players .. 58
Table: Key Players: Oman Telecoms Sector 58
Table: Oman Financial Indicators ... 58
Company Monitor .. 59
Table: Cisco Financial Performance By Theatre, H1 FY12. 62
Operator Profiles ... 63
Omantel ... 63
Nawras Telecom .. 68
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ... 72
Fixed Line 72
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview .. 72
Mobile .. 74
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 74
Broadband ... 76
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 76
Demographic Outlook ... 77
Oman's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) .. 78
Oman's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 78
Oman's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020.. 79
Oman's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ... 80
Glossary Of Terms . 81
Table: Glossary Of Terms 81
BMI Methodology ... 83
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 83
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 83
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .. 85
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 85
Table: Ratings Indicators . 86
Weighting . 87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 87
Sources 87Table: MENA Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings Q312 . 14

Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 17

Table: Monthly Blended ARPU, 2009-2016 . 19

Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 20

Table: Oman Internet Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 21

Table: Oman Mobile Subscribers – Q411 . 25

Table: Oman Mobile Net Additions Market . 25

Table: Mobile Contract Wins . 32

Table: Oman Mobile Market Overview . 33

Table: Omantel . 33

Table: Nawras . 34

Table: Resellers . 34

Table: Selected VAS Services . 40

Table: Wireline Contract Wins . 52

Table: Oman Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities . 53

Table: Key Players: Oman Telecoms Sector . 58

Table: Oman Financial Indicators . 58

Table: Cisco Financial Performance By Theatre, H1 FY12. 62

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . 72

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 74

Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 76

Table: Glossary Of Terms . 81

Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . 83

Table: Ratings Indicators . 86

Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 87

Oman Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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