Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
New Zealand Tourism SWOT .. 6
New Zealand Political SWOT . 6
New Zealand Economic SWOT .. 7
New Zealand Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Industry Forecast Scenario . 9
Arrivals 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2009-2016 9
Accommodation . 10
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) 10
Expenditure 11
Table: Expenditure Data, 2009-2016 ... 11
Inbound Tourism 11
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2009-2016 .. 12
Outbound Tourism . 13
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2009-2016 . 13
Market Overview – Travel .. 15
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 17
Table: BMI’s Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 17
Market Overview – Hospitality .. 26
Business Environment Outlook 28
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings . 28
BMI’s Security Ratings .. 28
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 29
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 30
South Asia Security Overview 30
South Asia In A Global Context 30
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security ... 31
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South Asia ... 34
Sino-US Rivalry 40
Global Assumptions .. 43
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 43
Developed States 44
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 . 45
Emerging Markets . 46
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 ... 46
Consensus .. 47
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013 . 47
Company Profiles ... 48
Air New Zealand ... 48
Mirvac .. 48
Tourism Holdings . 48
BMI Methodology ... 49
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 49
Tourism Industry... 49
Tourism Ratings – Methodology ... 50
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators .. 51
Table: Weighting Of Components . 52
Sources . 52Table: Arrivals Data, 2009-2016 . 9
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated). 10
Table: Expenditure Data, 2009-2016 . 11
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2009-2016 . 12
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2009-2016 . 13
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 17
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings . 28
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 29
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 30
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 . 43
Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 . 45
Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 . 46
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013 . 47
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators . 51
Table: Weighting Of Components . 52