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Mozambique Power Report Q3 2012

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No. of Pages : 58
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BMI View: Mozambique boasts one of Africa’s fastest growing economies, with healthy GDP growth, abundant natural resources and growing energy demand. Recent offshore gas and coal discoveries reinforce Mozambique’s potential for energy exports, although for these to succeed, the government must invest in infrastructure to facilitate operations. Hydroelectricity meets the majority of Mozambique’s domestic demand, and April 2012 saw the government acquire a 7.5% stake in the Cahora Bassa power station from Portugal – with a view to purchasing Portugal’s remaining share within two years.
Regaining control has been a matter of national pride, but we note that the move reinforces the role of public sector involvement in energy provision and procurement, rather than moving towards a liberalisation of the energy sector. In the five years from 2011 to 2016, BMI forecasts that Mozambique’s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 4.7% to reach 22.3 terawatt hours (TWh), with hydropower contributing to the majority of this growth. Gas-fired power generation capacity will increase – admittedly from a small base – by an average of 9.3% over this five-year period, boosted by the construction of a new 140 megawatts (MW) gas-fired power plant which could begin operations as early as 2013.
Mozambique’s power sector is heavily reliant on hydropower, which, at present, is primarily sourced from the Cahora Bassa Hydroelectric Plant (HCB) in Tete province. The plant produces 2,075MW of power, the majority of which is exported to Eskom in South Africa and Zesa in Zimbabwe – although export volumes have fallen because of outstanding payments. In early 2012, state power utility Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM) stated that it wanted to raise its own share of energy produced from 400MW to 500MW – a move that would lead to a fall in exports. However, there is scope to increase production here, with total capacity estimated to stand at 12 gigawatts (GW). Gas-fired production is also set to increase, with South Africa’s Sasol studying the development of a 140MW plant under a joint venture (JV) with state utility, EDM.
We envisage Mozambique’s net power consumption increasing by an annual average of 8.4% over our 10-year forecast period, from 12.21TWh in 2011 to 27.21TWh by 2021. By 2016, we predict that Mozambique’s power sector will hold net export potential of 1.48TWh, but this will grow to 3.20TWh by 2021.
Key developments in Mozambique’s power sector include: 􀂃 Mozambique now owns a 92.5% stake in the country’s largest hydroelectric plant, Cahora Bassa, after Portugal sold 7.5% of its remaining share to the government for US$42mn, and agreed to hand over its final 7.5% share to Mozambique within two years.
􀂃 In March 2012, South Africa’s Sasol announced that its feasibility study for a gas-fired power plant in Mozambique was at an advanced stage.
􀂃 Mozambique has reduced power export volumes from its Cahora Bassa hydroelectric facility to neighbouring Zimbabwe, citing outstanding debt of US$80mn as the reason.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Botswana Industry SWOT .. 7
Global Industry Overview 8
Regional Industry Overview .. 15
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 20
Mozambique Macroeconomic Snapshot 20
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 20
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector .. 20
Mozambique Forecast Scenario 21
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity .. 21
Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 21
Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 22
Table: Mozambique Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016 23
Table: Mozambique Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecast, 2013 - 2021 23
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 28
Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 28
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports ... 30
Table: Mozambique Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 30
Table: Mozambique Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 .. 30
Table: Mozambique Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ... 30
Table: Mozambique Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 31
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 33
Key Projects Database .. 38
Table: Major Power Projects – Southern Africa .. 38
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings . 40
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 40
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 40
Mozambique Power Risk/Reward Ratings 44
Rewards ... 45
Risks 45
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor . 47
Africa Power: Competitive Landscape. 47
Table: Main Utilities In East Africa . 48
Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex. South Africa) 49
Glossary of Terms .. 51
Table: Glossary of Terms . 51
Methodology and Sources 52
Industry Forecasts 52
Power Industry - Data Methodology 53
Generation and Consumption Data . 53
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 54
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 54
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 56
Sources 57Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 20


Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 20


Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 21


Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 22


Table: Mozambique Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016 . 23


Table: Mozambique Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecast, 2013 - 2021 . 23


Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 28


Table: Mozambique Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 28


Table: Mozambique Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 30


Table: Mozambique Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 30


Table: Mozambique Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 30


Table: Mozambique Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 31


Table: Major Power Projects – Southern Africa . 38


Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 40


Table: Main Utilities In East Africa . 48


Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex. South Africa) . 49


Table: Glossary of Terms . 51


Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 56

Mozambique Power Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International
 

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