Kenya Power Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 61

Price:

BMI View: Kenya’s power sector continues to diversified its energy generation capability. Although hydropower generation remains vulnerable to drought and variations in rainfall, additional hydro facilities are being developed in order to reduce the country’s dependence on costly oil-fired capacity.
Over the longer term, the favoured form of renewable energy is geothermal, where potential is believed to be considerable. Coal-based generating schemes should provide medium-term electricity supply.
BMI anticipates that Kenya’s overall power generation will grow by an annual average of 11.15% between 2011 and 2016, to reach 11.77TWh. Driving this growth will be a 4.78% annual average increase in hydropower and a 28.02% annual average rise in the supply of renewables-based electricity. Oil-fired generation is expected to fall by over 18% per annum as hydro increases in availability. We expect coalfired power to become commercially available from 2015 and beyond.
Key trends and developments in the country’s Power sector include: 􀂃 Kenya and Ethiopia have concluded a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), under which Kenya will import up to 400 megawatts (MW) annually from Ethiopia. The agreement is part of a series of arrangements – including a special status trade pact – aimed at strengthening the socioeconomic ties between the two countries and appears to be underpinned mainly by political motivations. With both countries heavily reliant on hydropower and lacking sufficient capacity to cater for the needs of their populations, Ethiopian imports are unlikely to make a significant difference in times of need.
􀂃 Kenya Electricity Generating Company’s (KenGen) plans to build six new geothermal power plants are part of Kenya’s bid to diversify its power mix away from costly thermal and unreliable hydropower. Nonetheless, we note that the US$12bn price tag associated with these relatively small projects is prohibitive, and we note that the company is likely to encounter difficulties in raising the financing required.
􀂃 Due to the expected rise in net energy generation over the next few years, Kenya’s power supply shortfall should eventually ease. This trend has potential to provide the country with a net export capability. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 16%, according to estimates for 2011, will help balance the market. By 2017, we predict that Kenya’s power sector will develop a net export potential of 0.02TWh, although we expect this figure to drop to -0.96TWh by 2021.
􀂃 Electricity feed-in tariffs (FiTs) in Kenya have boosted interest in renewable energy sources in the country. Kenya’s FiTs guarantee the price paid for electricity from renewable sources, ensuring these technologies are cost competitive with more conventional power plants and encourage the development of renewables facilities in the country.

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Kenya Power SWOT .. 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview .. 14
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 19
Kenya Macroeconomic Snapshot .. 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector .. 19
Kenya Industry Forecasts . 19
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity .. 19
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ... 19
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 21
Table: Kenya Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 22
Table: Kenya Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 23
Electricity Consumption 30
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 30
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 30
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports . 32
Table: Kenya Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 32
Table: Kenya Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 32
Table: Kenya Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 32
Table: Kenya Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 32
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 35
Key Projects Database .. 39
Table: Major Power Projects – East Africa . 39
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings . 44
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 44
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 44
Kenya’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings 49
Rewards ... 49
Risks 49
Table: Main Utilities In East Africa . 51
Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex. South Africa) 52
Glossary of Terms .. 54
Table: Glossary of Terms . 54
Methodology and Sources 55
Industry Forecasts 55
Power Industry - Data Methodology 56
Generation and Consumption Data . 56
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 57
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 57
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 59
Sources 60Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 19

Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 19

Table: Kenya Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 19

Table: Kenya Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 21

Table: Kenya Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts . 22

Table: Kenya Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts . 23

Table: Kenya Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 30

Table: Kenya Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 30

Table: Kenya Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 32

Table: Kenya Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 32

Table: Kenya Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 32

Table: Kenya Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 32

Table: Major Power Projects – East Africa . 39

Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 44

Table: Main Utilities In East Africa . 51

Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex. South Africa) . 52

Table: Glossary of Terms . 54

Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 59

Kenya Power Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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