Hungary Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 56

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Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.

Executive Summary . 5
Table: Levels (HUFbn) .. 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) ... 5
Table: Levels At February 2012 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) ... 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (HUFbn), 2008-2016 ... 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn), 2008-2016 6
SWOT Analysis . 7
Hungary Commercial Banking SWOT ... 7
Hungary Political SWOT ... 7
Hungary Economic SWOT . 8
Hungary Business Environment SWOT .. 9
Business Environment Outlook 10
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 10
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings ... 10
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology .. 11
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings .. 12
Global Commercial Banking Outlook ... 13
Eurozone Banking Sector Outlook ... 19
CEE Banking Sectors Hold Little Promise For Investment Returns . 19
Europe Banking Sector Forecast Overview . 26
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 26
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings .. 27
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios . 28
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 ... 29
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) . 30
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) .. 31
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields .. 32
Hungary Banking Sector Outlook . 33
Policy Risks Still Salient For Banks . 33
Economic Outlook .. 37
Table: Hungary – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 39
Competitive Landscape . 40
Market Structure ... 40
Protagonists . 40
Protagonists In Hungary's Commercial Banking Sector .. 40
Definition Of The Hungarian Commercial Banking Universe . 40
List Of Banks ... 41
Table: 20 Largest Banks By Assets .. 41
Company Profiles ... 42
Central-European International Bank . 42
Table: CIB Bank 2009-2010 (HUFmn) 43
Raiffeisen Bank 44
Table: Stock Market Indicators 45
Table: Balance Sheet (HUFmn) ... 45
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2008-2009 . 45
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2008-2009 ... 46
UniCredit Bank Hungary . 47
Table: Unicredit 2009-2010 (HUFmn) 48
Budapest Hitel- és Fejlesztési Bank Nyilvánosan M?köd? Részvénytársaság .. 49
Table: Budapest Hitel 2009-2010 (HUFmn) 49
MFB Magyar Fejlesztési Bank Zrt. .. 50
Table: MFB 2009-2010 (HUFmn) ... 50
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 51
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating .. 53
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ... 55Table: Levels (HUFbn) . 5

Table: Levels (US$bn) . 5

Table: Levels At February 2012 . 5

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) . 5

Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 . 6

Table: Projected Levels (HUFbn), 2008-2016 . 6

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn), 2008-2016 . 6

Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 10

Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 12

Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 . 26

Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 27

Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios . 28

Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 . 29

Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) . 30

Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) . 31

Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields . 32

Table: Hungary – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 39

Table: 20 Largest Banks By Assets . 41

Table: CIB Bank 2009-2010 (HUFmn) . 43

Table: Stock Market Indicators . 45

Table: Balance Sheet (HUFmn) . 45

Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2008-2009 . 45

Table: Key Ratios (%), 2008-2009 . 46

Table: Unicredit 2009-2010 (HUFmn) . 48

Table: Budapest Hitel 2009-2010 (HUFmn) . 49

Table: MFB 2009-2010 (HUFmn) . 50

Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale. 54

Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 55

Hungary Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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