Botswana Power Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 54

Price:

BMI View: With almost all of its domestically produced energy sourced from coal-fired power stations, Botswana has a very narrow power base – and as continued outages illustrate, it is not capable of meeting national consumption requirements. In order to raise capacity, the government plans to boost energy production from coal-fired sources with the goal of reaching self-sufficiency and reducing dependence upon unreliable, and expensive, imports from South Africa. Botswana is not the only country to suffer from shortages and in April 2012 it entered into an agreement with Namibia’s NamPower, along with Zimbabwe and Zambia, to improve and control energy consumption in these four countries. In the five years period 2011 to 2016, BMI forecasts that Botswana's overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 28.4%, to reach 2.0TWh. We expect all of this growth to come from new or existing coal-fired power plants. Botswana’s government plans to expand its domestic power production – in turn, reducing its dependence upon neighbouring South Africa for energy imports throughout the course of 2012 – by developing new coal-fired power facilities, such as the Mmamabula coal-fired power plant, which is being constructed by Canada's CIC Energy Corp. There is scope for renewable energy development, solar power in particular; a feasibility for one 200MW solar power project began in late 2011, with its completion expected in September 2012. There are also plans for the introduction of renewable energy Feed-In Tariffs (FITs).
Between 2011 and 2016, we predict that Botswana's net power consumption will increase from 3.3TWh to 4.6TWh. The mining sector is the most important consumer segment in Botswana in terms of electricity consumption. Underlying the growing demand for energy in the country will be a steady increase in GDP, which BMI forecasts average annual growth of 5.0% between 2011 and 2021, together with the continued expansion of the country's population. By 2016, we predict that Botswana's net imports will have risen to 3.6TWh. Key developments for Botswana’s power sector include:
􀂃 South Africa’s energy provider Eskom continues to cut energy exports to Botswana, with a view to reducing supply throughout 2012. With no short-term solution to reduced energy imports available, BMI believes that regular energy outages will have a negative affect on the country’s business environment.
􀂃 Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Namibia announced in April 2012 that they had entered into an agreement with the goal of reducing energy consumption in their respective countries.
􀂃 Energy Minister Ponatshego Kedikilwe stated in April 2012 that Botswana will need 600MW from independent power producers in order to meet domestic energy requirements. The government requires 300MW to be added to the grid in 2015, and an additional 300MW in 2018.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Botswana Industry SWOT .. 6
Global Industry Overview ... 7
Regional Industry Overview . 14
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 19
Botswana Macroeconomic Snapshot . 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector .. 19
Botswana Forecast Scenario . 20
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity .. 20
Table: Botswana Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 20
Table: Botswana Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 20
Table: Botswana Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ... 21
Table: Botswana Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 21
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: Botswana Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 26
Table: Botswana Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 26
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports ... 28
Table: Botswana Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 28
Table: Botswana Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021... 28
Table: Botswana Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 28
Table: Botswana Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 .. 28
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 30
Key Projects Database .. 35
Table: Major Power Projects – Southern Africa .. 35
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings . 37
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 37
Botswana Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 41
Rewards ... 42
Risks . 42
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor. 43
Africa Power: Competitive Landscape . 43
Table: Main Utilities In East Africa . 44
Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex. South Africa) 45
Glossary of Terms . 47
Table: Glossary of Terms . 47
Methodology and Sources 48
Industry Forecasts 48
Power Industry - Data Methodology 49
Generation and Consumption Data . 49
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 50
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 52
Sources 53Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 19

Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 19

Table: Botswana Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 20

Table: Botswana Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 20

Table: Botswana Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 21

Table: Botswana Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 21

Table: Botswana Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 26

Table: Botswana Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 26

Table: Botswana Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 28

Table: Botswana Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021. 28

Table: Botswana Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 28

Table: Botswana Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 28

Table: Major Power Projects – Southern Africa . 35

Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 37

Table: Main Utilities In East Africa . 44

Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex. South Africa) . 45

Table: Glossary of Terms . 47

Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 52

Botswana Power Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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