Angola Power Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 56

Price:

BMI View: Despite being an oil-rich country and net exporter, Angola’s domestic power supply is met by energy generated by hydroelectricity, with only a small percentage of energy generation coming from alternative sources. The country is making some progress towards diversifying its energy mix: some new thermal capacity is planned, and a LNG project is scheduled to begin construction in May 2012, but other areas, namely solar power, remain undeveloped. An election year is upon Angola, and while BMI does not expect a change in government – President Dos Santos has been in power for over 30 years – the government announced it will spend US$16.5bn in electricity infrastructure between 2012 and 2016.
Whether this promise is fulfilled post-election remains to be seen. BMI forecasts that Angola's overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 9.7% between 2011 and 2016, to reach 6.76 terwatt hours (TWh). A 10.0% annual average increase in hydropower will spur this growth, and this will continue to be the source of the majority of Angola’s domestic energy production over the forecast period. We envisage Angola's net power consumption increasing from 3.65TWh in 2011 to 5.78TWh by 2016. A steady increase in GDP will support growth; following real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.8% between 2011 and 2021.
We expect improvements to Angola's national electricity grid to result in a gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses; this will fall from around 14.6% in 2011. The presence of oil and gas majors in the country will incentivise the government to improve its electricity infrastructure to meet industry’s requirements. We do not expect Angola to have to import significant quantities of electricity, nor do we expect electricity exports to be substantial.
Key developments in Angola’s power sector this quarter include: 􀂃 Work on a LNG terminal in Soyo has been delayed, with a start date now set for May 2012. The project is funded through a partnership between five oil & gas majors.
􀂃 In April 2012, President José Eduardo dos Santos stated that by 2016, Angola’s energy supply would be stabilised, with the government earmarking US$16.5bn for energy investments.
􀂃 Work began on a 10MW thermal power station in Menongue in March 2012, with the US$30- 40mn investment scheduled to begin operations by early 2013.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Angola Power SWOT . 6
Global Industry Overview ... 7
Regional Industry Overview . 14
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 19
Angola Macroeconomic Snapshot . 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector .. 19
Angola Forecast Scenario . 20
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity .. 20
Table: Angola Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 20
Table: Angola Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 21
Table: Angola Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ... 22
Table: Angola Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 22
Electricity Consumption 27
Table: Angola Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 27
Table: Angola Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 27
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports ... 29
Table: Angola Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 2008-2016 .. 29
Table: Angola Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 29
Table: Angola Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 29
Table: Angola Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 .. 29
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 31
Key Projects Database .. 36
Table: Major Power Projects – Southern Africa .. 36
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 38
Angola Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 43
Rewards ... 43
Risks . 43
Competitive Landscape 45
Africa Power: Competitive Landscape . 45
Table: Main Utilities In East Africa . 46
Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex. South Africa) 47
Glossary of Terms . 49
Table: Glossary of Terms . 49
Methodology and Sources 50
Industry Forecasts ... 50
Power Industry - Data Methodology 51
Generation and Consumption Data . 51
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 52
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 52
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 54
Sources 55Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 19

Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 19

Table: Angola Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 20

Table: Angola Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 21

Table: Angola Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 22

Table: Angola Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 22

Table: Angola Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 27

Table: Angola Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 27

Table: Angola Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 2008-2016 . 29

Table: Angola Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 29

Table: Angola Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 29

Table: Angola Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 29

Table: Major Power Projects – Southern Africa . 36

Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 38

Table: Main Utilities In East Africa . 46

Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex. South Africa) . 47

Table: Glossary of Terms . 49

Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 54

Angola Power Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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