Poland Power Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 67

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BMI View: There have been several developments in relation to Poland’s energy mix that will enable the country to comply with EU regulations on renewable energy generation. There are plans for the construction of a wind energy complex and the government will also amend a renewable energy law – which was proposed in December 2011 – after investors warned that in its original form, it would deter development and damage the financing mechanisms for wind farms. After an attempt to merge electricity utilities Enea and Energa failed on competition grounds, the government announced plans in March 2012 to float both firms before the end of 2013. Poland is suffering because of recession in the eurozone and we expect cross-border trade to be affected as a result.
BMI estimates that energy generation in Poland stood at 149.8 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2011, and forecasts that it will grow by just 1.5% to 152.0TWh in 2012. Growth in Polish power demand is likely to be capped by a shrinking population and improved efficiency, while the economic impact of the eurozone crisis will be felt in Poland, and have a negative impact on investment in new capacity. That said, the country is better positioned that its regional peers. BMI forecasts average annual growth of 1.9% between 2012 and 2021. Poland is gradually diversifying its energy mix, and throughout our forecast period, it will post considerable increases in generation from renewables – in line with Poland’s EU obligations. BMI forecasts that natural gas energy generation will post an average annual growth rate of 10.7% between 2012 and 2021, with much of this growth to stem from the 900 megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant in Grudziadz, and in renewable energy – particularly biomass and wind power. Polish utility PGE’s renewables strategy calls for offshore wind farms to contribute 1 gigawatt (GW) of power potential by 2020, while Tauron is constructing a biomass-fired boiler at the Jaworzno III Power Plant, which is scheduled to be operational at the end of 2012.
Key developments in Poland’s power sector include: 􀂃 Spain’s Iberdrola secured a PLN1.6bn (US$503.5mn) contract for the construction of a 400MW heat and power plant in Poland, which should enter commercial operations by 2014.
􀂃 The Polish government announced in March 2012 that it intends to privatise state utilities Energa and Enea before the end of 2013, as part of a wider privatisation programme. A month earlier, government officials announced that Poland was considering merging the two firms.
􀂃 In April 2012, the government announced that it would redraft a renewable energy law, which had already been published in December 2011, after investors said reduced subsidies for wind farm projects would deter developers. The redraft is due to be carried out in May 2012

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Poland Power SWOT . 6
Global Industry Overview ... 7
Regional Overview . 14
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 19
Poland Macroeconomic Snapshot . 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector .. 19
Poland Forecast Scenario . 19
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity .. 19
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 19
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 22
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ... 24
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 25
Electricity Consumption 31
Table: Poland Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008 -2016 . 31
Table: Poland Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 31
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports ... 33
Table: Poland Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 33
Table: Poland Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 33
Table: Poland Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 33
Table: Poland Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 .. 33
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 35
Regulation And Competition 35
Sustainable Energy Policies . 36
Pricing . 37
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of November 2011 . 37
Key Projects Database .. 39
Table: Key Projects – Energy And Utilities 39
Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 44
Central and Eastern Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 44
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 46
Poland Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 48
Rewards ... 48
Risks . 49
Competitive Landscape 50
Tauron . 51
PGE/PSE . 52
PKE . 52
ENEA ... 52
Energa . 53
RWE/STOEN 53
Vattenfall . 53
Electrabel. 54
Company Profiles .. 55
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) . 55
Glossary of Terms . 59
Table: Glossary of Terms . 59
Methodology And Sources ... 60
Industry Forecasts ... 60
Power Industry - Data Methodology 61
Generation and Consumption Data . 61
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 62
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 62
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 64
Sources 66Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 19

Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 19

Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 19

Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 22

Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 24

Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 25

Table: Poland Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008 -2016 . 31

Table: Poland Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 31

Table: Poland Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 33

Table: Poland Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 33

Table: Poland Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 33

Table: Poland Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 33

Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of November 2011 . 37

Table: Key Projects – Energy And Utilities . 39

Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 46

Table: Glossary of Terms . 59

Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 64

Poland Power Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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