Poland Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 78

Price:

BMI’s Q3 Poland Defence and Security Report examines the country’s strategic position in Europe and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future. In addition, the report examines the trends witnessed in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report’s general conclusion is that while some restraints may exist vis-à-vis Polish defence procurement, broadly speaking the country expects to continue the trend of defence modernisation it commenced at the end of the Cold War, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
In the two decades since the end of the Cold War, and the collapse of both the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, the country has taken an increasingly active position in international military affairs. With the country planning to withdraw its combat troops from Afghanistan in the 2014/15 timeframe in line with NATO’s overall goals of ending its military presence there, Poland is now contemplating its military posture and doctrine beyond current operations and expects to play an active role in future international military operations at the United Nations, European Union and NATO level, particularly in terms of Special Forces provision which is acknowledged as being one of the country’s core competencies.
The active role that Poland is playing in out-of-area operations is prompting its Government to invest in the capabilities that the country will require in the future: Most notably, this includes the acquisition of new medium-lift military helicopters to equip all three Polish services. Such aircraft are key force multipliers with a high degree of versatility given their available space and lift capacity. A similar investment into logistics is expected via the acquisition of a large number of new trucks to replace legacy vehicles currently in service with the Army.
Poland has had a long-standing requirement for a new lead-in jet trainer aircraft following the country’s Lockheed Martin F-16 multirole combat aircraft entry into service. The new aircraft will be required to simulate air-to-air and air-to-ground operations. The Polish air force has commenced the upgrade of its ground-based air defences, and plans to perform a parallel procurement of new short-range air defence systems. Similarly, the navy is widely expected to soon procure new conventional submarines to replace Russian origin and Norwegian boats currently in service.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: 􀂃 BMI has added a discussion regarding the air force’s procurement of a new lead-in jet trainer. 􀂃 BMI has written summary of Poland’s options as regards its planned purchase of a new mediumlift helicopter.
􀂃 A discussion is also included in the report examining the navy’s modernisation efforts vis-à-vis new submarines.
􀂃 In addition, BMI’s report includes a summary of the country’s options pertaining to the purchase of new trucks for its land forces.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Poland Security SWOT .. 7
Poland Defence Industry SWOT 8
Poland Political SWOT .. 8
Poland Economic SWOT 9
Poland Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook . 10
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013. 10
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula ... 10
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 ... 14
Wild Cards To Watch ... 18
Europe Security Overview . 21
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s .. 21
Europe In A Global Context. 21
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade . 21
What If The Eurozone Collapses? Political Risks Assessed . 27
Security Risk Analysis ... 32
BMI’s Security Ratings 32
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings ... 32
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ... 33
Political Overview ... 35
Domestic Politics .. 35
Numerous Challenges In 2012 . 35
Foreign Policy .. 37
Rising Warsaw-Moscow Strains In 2012 . 37
Long-Term Political Outlook 39
A Maturing Regional Power 39
Security Overview .. 45
Internal Security Situation ... 45
External Security Situation .. 45
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 46
Armed Forces .. 46
Defence Strategy .. 49
International Deployments ... 50
Market Overview . 52
Arms Trade Overview .. 53
Procurement Trends And Developments .. 54
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 59
Armed Forces .. 59
Table: Poland’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 59
Table: Poland’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 59
Defence Expenditure 60
Table: Poland’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 .. 60
Table: Poland’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) ... 61
Defence Trade .. 61
Table: Poland’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) .. 62
Table: Poland’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) .. 62
Table: Poland’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) ... 63
Macroeconomic Forecast . 64
Far From Recession In 2012 ... 64
Table: Poland – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2008-2016 .. 67
Company Profiles ... 68
Bumar .. 68
HSW . 69
WSK PZL Mielec.. 70
WSK PZL Rzeszow ... 71
Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data ... 72
Section 1: Population ... 72
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 72
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ... 73
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 73
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 73
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 73
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 74
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 74
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 74
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 .. 75
BMI Methodology ... 76
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 76
Defence Industry .. 76
Sources 77Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 . 14

Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings . 32

Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 33

Table: Poland's Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated). 59

Table: Poland's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 59

Table: Poland's Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 60

Table: Poland's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 61

Table: Poland's Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 62

Table: Poland's Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 62

Table: Poland's Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 63

Table: Poland – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2008-2016 . 67

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 72

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 73

Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 73

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 73

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 74

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) . 74

Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 . 75

Poland Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

Published By: Business Monitor International

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