Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 57

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In 2011, petrochemicals and downstream industries reported stellar growth as the industry enjoyed an influx of fresh investment and strong demand. The chemicals industry was one of the strongest non-oil industrial segments for the year, with 36% growth, while rubber and plastic output rose 25%.
The expansion of the petrochemicals sector in Q312 and beyond will be closely linked to the performance of Azerbaijani methanol producer AzMeCo, which is planning to export about 90% of its output when it completes its US$360mn plant in Q113. The plant will have a capacity of 560,000 tonnes per annum (tpa), raising methanol production in Azerbaijan to 720,000tpa. The remainder of AzMeCo’s output is for domestic use and it will be employed to bolster the domestic non-oil industry, leading to the production of acetic acid (165,000tpa), formaldehyde (18,000tpa) and melamine (15,000tpa). A fertiliser project is also planned at AzMeCo’s Karadagh facility, with capacities of 255,000tpa ammonia and 500,000tpa urea.
State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) is also planning two fertiliser plants, with 700,000tpa of urea capacity each – one in Azerbaijan and one in Georgia. Construction is due to begin in mid-2013, with completion due by end-2016. Azerbaijan is aiming to raise its fertiliser exports to 1mn tpa.
Azerbaijan is in 10th and sits at the bottom of BMI’s proprietary Central and Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, with a score of 32.7, 6.6 points behind Bulgaria. Azerbaijan’s score could rise if plans for a new integrated petrochemicals complex come to fruition, but this is unlikely to come onstream before 2018 at the earliest. Azerbaijan’s considerable energy reserves and rising gas output have meant petrochemicals capacity has been overlooked, largely owing to a poor business environment, which has deterred investors. However, there are signs that things are changing for the better, as the government is making a concerted effort at restructuring the sector.

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Industry SWOT ... 6
Global Petrochemicals Overview ... 7
Petrochemicals Market Overview .. 7
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 (‘000 tonnes capacity) ... 7
Financial Results . 11
Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011 11
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 12
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 12
European Petrochemicals Overview 21
Azerbaijan Market Overview . 26
Table: Azerbaijan’s Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 (‘000 tpa) . 26
Table: Manufacture Of Petrochemicals Products, 2000-2010 (‘000 tonnes) ... 27
Industry Trends And Developments 28
Upstream Activities .. 30
Petkim Privatisation 32
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings .. 35
Azerbaijan Risk/Reward Ratings ... 35
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings . 35
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 38
Table: Azerbaijan’s Petrochemicals Sector, 2008-2016 (‘000tpa, unless otherwise stated) 38
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 41
Table: Azerbaijan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 43
Company Profiles ... 44
Azerkimya 44
State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) . 45
Glossary Of Terms . 48
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms .. 48
Country Snapshot: Azerbaijan Demographic Data . 49
Section 1: Population ... 49
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 49
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ... 50
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 50
Table: Education . 50
Table: Vital Statistics ... 50
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 51
Table: Employment Indicators . 51
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 1999-2004 (US$) 51
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 .. 52
BMI Methodology ... 53
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 53
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry . 53
Cross Checks ... 54
Business Environment Ratings . 55
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale . 55
Weighting . 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ... 56Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 (‘000 tonnes capacity) . 7

Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011 . 11

Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 12

Table: Azerbaijan's Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 (‘000 tpa) . 26

Table: Manufacture Of Petrochemicals Products, 2000-2010 (‘000 tonnes) . 27

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings . 35

Table: Azerbaijan's Petrochemicals Sector, 2008-2016 (‘000tpa, unless otherwise stated) . 38

Table: Azerbaijan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 43

Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms . 48

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 49

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 50

Table: Education . 50

Table: Vital Statistics . 50

Table: Employment Indicators . 51

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 1999-2004 (US$) . 51

Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 . 52

Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale . 55

Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 56

Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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