Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 71

Price:

BMI View: In 2011/12, we expect the Pakistani agriculture sector to reap record harvests for key crops such as rice, sugar and cotton owing to favourable weather in 2011 and the year-on-year increase in crop area following floods in 2010. However, long-term growth in agricultural output will be constrained unless improvements are made to infrastructure and supply chains. We expect the dairy, poultry and wheat industries to be the biggest beneficiaries of increased investment in the agriculture sector.
Key Forecasts .. Rice production to 2015/16: 50.4% to 7.3mn tonnes. Growth will be primarily led by increased exports as the country expands trade with new partners. We expect basmati rice to take up a greater share of the trade as production increases.
.. Cotton production to 2015/16: 45.5% to 12.8mn bales. Increased demand from Europe and emerging markets will drive output. We also expect an increase in domestic farmers switching from rice and sugar to cotton cultivation.
.. Sugar production to 2015/16: 22.1% to 4.8mn tonnes. Large-scale consumers such as confectioners, candy makers and soft drink manufacturers account for about 60% of the total sugar demand and will be the main drivers of growth.
.. 2012 real GDP growth: 2.2%. Down from 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011; forecast to average 3.7% over 2012-2016.
.. Wholesale price inflation: 17.4% average in 2012 (down from 21.1% in 2011). .. BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.5% y-o-y decline to US$42.6bn in 2011/12, forecast to average US$44.2bn between 2011/12 and 2015/16.
Industry Developments The tough regulatory and operational environment poses a serious threat to production growth in the cotton sector. The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) has expressed concern about cultivators and ginners, citing funding shortages and exploitation at the hands of textile millers. PCGA Chairman Amanullah Qureshi has said that commercial banks' lending to cultivators has been far short of the limits prescribed by the State Bank of Pakistan, and that lobbying by textile millers has led to losses of more than PKR225bn so far in 2012. The PCGA has called for the formulation of a debt policy for ginners in 2012/13. Meanwhile, a four-year programme launched by the EU in Pakistan in April could help to solve some of the key issues in the sector.
The Trading Corporation of Pakistan in April procured 478,000 tonnes of surplus sugar following a request from Pakistani sugar millers to allow a surplus 500,000 tonnes for export. The millers requested the sugar in order to pay debts of PKR250bn (US$2.75bn).
The government in Pakistan is aiming to procure 7.73mn tonnes of wheat - worth PKR210 (US$2.3bn) - from farmers through loan guarantees. In light of the fact that farmers have typically been unable to sell their grains at the support prices announced by the government, the government has revealed that the current procurement will be carried out at a higher rate of PKR1,050 (US$292) per tonne. Meanwhile, Pakistan is in talks with Iran about the possibility of importing iron ore and fertilizers in exchange for wheat exports

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Pakistan Agriculture SWOT ... 7
Pakistan Political SWOT ... 8
Pakistan Economic SWOT . 9
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT ... 10
Supply Demand Analysis .. 11
Pakistan Rice Outlook ... 11
Table: Pakistan Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016. 11
Table: Pakistan Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012. 12
Pakistan Sugar Outlook 13
Table: Pakistan Sugar Production & Consumption , 2011-2016 . 14
Table: Pakistan Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .. 15
Pakistan Grains Outlook ... 17
Table: Pakistan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 19
Table: Pakistan Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 19
Table: Pakistan Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 19
Table: Pakistan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 20
Table: Pakistan Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ... 20
Table: Pakistan Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 20
Pakistan Cotton Outlook ... 22
Table: Pakistan Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2016 . 22
Table: Pakistan Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 23
Commodity Price Analysis ... 24
Monthly Grains Update 24
Corn: Moving Towards Support .. 24
Soybean: Overstretched ... 24
Wheat: Downtrend Remains In Place .. 25
Rice: Temporary Strength 26
Monthly Softs Update 28
Cocoa: All Eyes On The Mid-Crop .. 28
Coffee: Brazil Leads Improved Supply . 30
Palm Oil: Strong Demand To Support Prices .. 32
Sugar: Surplus Finally Dragging Prices Lower ... 34
Cotton: Finding A Base 36
Table: Select Grains & Softs: Performance & BMI Forecasts . 39
Downstream Analysis ... 40
Food .. 40
Consumer Outlook ... 40
Food .. 43
Food Consumption ... 43
Table: Pakistan Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 44
Canned Food ... 44
Table: Pakistan Food Categories - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 45
Mass Grocery Retail . 46
Table: Pakistan MGR Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts , 2009-2016 . 46
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts ... 47
Trade 47
Table: Pakistan Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 48
Economic Analysis 49
Expenditure Breakdown ... 50
Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity 52
Global Food & Drink View ... 53
Table: Core Views ... 63
Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data ... 64
Section 1: Population ... 64
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 64
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 65
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 65
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ... 65
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 65
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 66
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 67
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 67
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 . 67
BMI Forecast Modelling 68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 68Table: Pakistan Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016. 11

Table: Pakistan Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012. 12

Table: Pakistan Sugar Production & Consumption , 2011-2016 . 14

Table: Pakistan Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 15

Table: Pakistan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 19

Table: Pakistan Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 19

Table: Pakistan Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 19

Table: Pakistan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 20

Table: Pakistan Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 20

Table: Pakistan Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 20

Table: Pakistan Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2016 . 22

Table: Pakistan Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 23

Table: Select Grains & Softs: Performance & BMI Forecasts . 39

Table: Pakistan Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 44

Table: Pakistan Food Categories - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 45

Table: Pakistan MGR Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts , 2009-2016 . 46

Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts . 47

Table: Pakistan Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 48

Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity . 52

Table: Core Views . 63

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 64

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 65

Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 65

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 65

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 66

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) . 67

Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 . 67

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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