Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 63

Price:

BMI View: Fighting inflation remains a core priority of the government in the near term and the government will increase imports of key grains such as wheat, rice and sugar to increase supply and keep prices in check. In the immediate term, we believe that the poultry sector could face the greatest challenge of higher input costs and inadequate compensation to help them to recover from losses incurred in the 2008 bird flu epidemic.
Over the longer term, we highlight the dire need for improved agriculture infrastructure to help the sector cope with climate change-related crop destruction. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Bangladesh loses about 80,000 hectares of arable land due to the impact of climate change such as droughts, salinity and floods. Key Forecasts
􀂃 Rice production growth: 13.1% to 37.6mn tonnes by 2015/16. Over the longer term, the introduction of an 'input distribution card' to 9mn small farmers is likely to help them to obtain cash subsidies for these inputs and boost productivity. 􀂃 Sugar production growth: -50.0% to 50,000 tonnes by 2015/16. With farmers increasingly turning towards more profitable cash crops such as cotton, we do not foresee the trend of declining sugar production to reverse any time soon.
􀂃 Poultry production growth: 17.8% to 225,000 tonnes by 2015/16. Better economic conditions and higher disposable incomes will help to drive demand for meat. Better disease control is also expected to support the recovery of the sector.
􀂃 2012 real GDP growth: 5.9%, down from 6.7% in 2011. Predicted to average 6.2% from 2011 to 2016.
􀂃 2012 consumer price inflation: 11.5%, up from 8.8% y-o-y in 2011. Predicted to average 7.5% from 2011 to 2016.
Key Developments In April 2012, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center announced that it had introduced a wheat variety in Bangladesh which is tolerant to the Ug99 strain of stem-rust fungus. The new variety has been developed together with the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, helped in part by a United States Agency for International Development seed-multiplication program. According to the centre, the new seed variety, known as Francolin, will be combined with another seed variety called Hashi (developed in 2010) to cover around 5% of the country's total area harvested by 2013. According to the farmers group Bangladesh Poultry Khamar Rokkha Jatiya Parishad, 54,000 poultry farms have closed down over the past one and a half years owing to inadequate compensation by the government after the avian flu epidemic in 2008. Unless more drastic steps are taken to stem the rise of unprofitable poultry farms, such as increasing farmer compensation, we believe this poses a strong downside risk to poultry output in the foreseeable future.
We expect the growing sugar production deficit in Bangladesh to place higher demand for sugar imports in the long term. Indeed, sugar imports have been on an upward trend in the past decade and we expect this to persist. In 2011/12, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts imports of the sweetener to come in at 1.4mn tonnes, the highest in four years. With farmers increasingly turning to plant more profitable cash crops such as cotton, we do not foresee the trend of declining sugar production to reverse any time soon.

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Bangladesh Agriculture Sector SWOT ... 7
Bangladesh Political SWOT ... 8
Bangladesh Economic SWOT 9
Bangladesh Business Environment SWOT ... 10
Supply Demand Analysis .. 11
Bangladesh Grains Outlook .. 11
Table: Bangladesh Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 12
Table: Bangladesh Corn Production, 2011-2016. 12
Table: Bangladesh Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 14
Table: Bangladesh Corn Production, 2008-2012. 14
Bangladesh Sugar Outlook ... 15
Table: Bangladesh Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 15
Table: Bangladesh Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 17
Bangladesh Rice Outlook .. 18
Table: Bangladesh Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 19
Table: Bangladesh Rice Production & Consumption ... 20
Bangladesh Livestock Outlook .. 22
Table: Bangladesh Poultry Production & Consumption , 2011-2016 .. 22
Table: Bangladesh Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 23
Table: Bangladesh Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ... 24
Table: Bangladesh Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ... 25
Commodity Price Analysis ... 26
Monthly Grains Update 26
Corn: Moving Towards Support .. 26
Soybean: Overstretched ... 26
Wheat: Downtrend Remains In Place .. 27
Rice: Temporary Strength 28
Monthly Softs Update 30
Cocoa: All Eyes On The Mid-Crop .. 30
Coffee: Brazil Leads Improved Supply . 32
Palm Oil: Strong Demand To Support Prices .. 34
Sugar: Surplus Finally Dragging Prices Lower ... 36
Cotton: Finding A Base 38
Table: Select Grains & Softs: Performance & BMI Forecasts . 41
Economic Analysis 42
Expenditure Breakdown ... 43
Table: Bangladesh - Economic Activity ... 44
Global Food & Drink View ... 45
Table: Core Views ... 55
Country Snapshot: Bangladesh Demographic Data .. 56
Section 1: Population ... 56
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 56
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 57
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 57
Table: Education, 2001-2003 ... 57
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 57
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 58
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 58
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) 58
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages 59
BMI Forecast Modelling 60
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 60Table: Bangladesh Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 12

Table: Bangladesh Corn Production, 2011-2016. 12

Table: Bangladesh Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 14

Table: Bangladesh Corn Production, 2008-2012. 14

Table: Bangladesh Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 15

Table: Bangladesh Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 17

Table: Bangladesh Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 19

Table: Bangladesh Rice Production & Consumption . 20

Table: Bangladesh Poultry Production & Consumption , 2011-2016 . 22

Table: Bangladesh Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 23

Table: Bangladesh Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 24

Table: Bangladesh Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 25

Table: Select Grains & Softs: Performance & BMI Forecasts . 41

Table: Bangladesh - Economic Activity . 44

Table: Core Views . 55

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 56

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 57

Table: Education, 2001-2003 . 57

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 57

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 58

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) . 58

Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages . 59

Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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