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Spain Agribusiness Report Q2 2012

Published : June 2012
No. of Pages : 65

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BMI View: Severe droughts in Spain's main growing regions in recent months have severely affected grain crops during plantings. As a result, we have revised down our forecasts for wheat, corn and barley production for 2012/13. We believe dry conditions could also affect the livestock and dairy industries via herd growth in pasture lands, and therefore meat and dairy production. These dynamics are likely to be aggravated a continued credit tightening in Spain, which will make it difficult for farmers to reinvest in production in the medium term.
Key Forecasts
.. Wheat production to 2015/16: 22.8% to 6.9mn tonnes. We believe adverse weather conditions this year will not be repeated; production is therefore expected to recover to average levels in 2013/14 and to continue to grow throughout our forecast period to 2015/16.
.. Cheese consumption to 2015/16: 19.5% to 417,400 tonnes. Traditionally, cheese was consumed mostly during social occasions in Spain. It is now becoming increasingly popular and a household staple.
.. Pork production to 2015/16: 8.3% to 3.8mn tonnes. We note that two new EU directives on swine farming are likely to force some less efficient producers to leave the industry in the run-up to 2013.
.. 2012 GDP growth: -2.1% (from 0.7% growth in 2011)
.. 2012 consumer price index: 2.0% annual average (from 1.3% in 2011)
.. BMI universe agribusiness market value: 7.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline to US$13.3bn in 2011/12, forecast to average US$12.8bn between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Industry Developments
We have revised down our forecast for EU wheat production in 2012/13 in line with the latest official estimates, which suggest lower output growth in France, Spain and Poland as a result of adverse weather conditions affecting plantings. We now forecast French wheat production to increase only 2.0% y-o-y to 36.0mn tonnes in 2012/13 (compared with 37.3mn previously) as winterkill hit 5-20% of the winter grains area. We have also revised down our projections for Polish wheat output to 9.0mn tonnes, a 3.2% fall compared with 2011/12, as similar cold snaps affected plantings. For Spain, we expect wheat output to decline 13.1% y-o-y to 5.6mn tonnes in 2012/13 as insufficient rains have prevented grains from growing normally.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Spain's total dam water reservoirs are only at 62.5 percent of capacity, limiting the quantity of water available for agricultural crops. While in Andalusia dams are at good levels, the Ebro basin, which covers the grain-growing regions of Aragon, Navarra and Catalonia, is reportedly at 59.0 of its water storage capacity. This is likely to limit the country's grain production and therefore limit feed supply for the livestock sector. Pasture land also has been affected by the dry conditions; this reduced pasture availability is forcing farmers to supplement animals' feed in quantities over normal levels.
Recent dynamics in the country's dairy industry are reflected by the strategy of Grupo Leche Pascual, one of Spain's leading dairy companies. The company is pursuing increasing product diversification in order to be less vulnerable to movements in prices of one commodity group (in this case, milk). The company also is seeking to develop sales in emerging markets, especially Asia, where there is large potential for dairy product demand growth.

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Spain Agriculture SWOT 7
Spain Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Supply Demand Analysis 9
Spain Dairy Outlook ... 9
Table: Spain Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 9
Table: Spain Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 10
Table: Spain Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 10
Table: Spain Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2016 . 13
Table: Spain Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 .. 13
Table: Spain Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 13
Spain Sugar Outlook . 14
Table: Spain Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 14
Table: Spain Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 ... 17
Spain Livestock Outlook ... 19
Table: Spain Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 20
Table: Spain Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 20
Table: Spain Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20
Table: Spain Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 22
Table: Spain Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 22
Table: Spain Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 23
Spain Grains Outlook ... 24
Table: Spain Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 25
Table: Spain Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 25
Table: Spain Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 25
Table: Spain Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 .. 29
Table: Spain Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 30
Table: Spain Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 .. 30
Commodity Price Analysis 31
Corn . 31
Rice .. 31
Soybean ... 32
Wheat ... 33
Monthly Softs Update 34
Cocoa... 34
Coffee... 34
Palm Oil .. 35
Sugar ... 36
Downstream Analysis 37
Food.. 37
Food.. 40
Food Consumption ... 40
Table: Spain Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 40
Canned Food/Prepared Food .. 41
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016 41
Confectionery... 41
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 42
Mass Grocery Retail . 43
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 44
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) 44
Trade ... 45
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 46
Country Snapshot: Spain Demographic Data . 47
Section 1: Population ... 47
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 47
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ... 48
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 48
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 48
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 48
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 49
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 49
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 49
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 . 50
Global Food & Drink View . 51
Food & Drink Roundup Q112: Core Views .. 51
Table: Core Views ... 61
BMI Forecast Modelling . 62
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 62Table: Spain Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 9

Table: Spain Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 10

Table: Spain Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 10

Table: Spain Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2016 . 13

Table: Spain Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 13

Table: Spain Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 13

Table: Spain Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 14

Table: Spain Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 17

Table: Spain Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20

Table: Spain Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20

Table: Spain Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 20

Table: Spain Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 22

Table: Spain Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 22

Table: Spain Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 23

Table: Spain Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 25

Table: Spain Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 25

Table: Spain Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 25

Table: Spain Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 29

Table: Spain Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 30

Table: Spain Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 30

Table: Spain Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 40

Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016 . 41

Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 42

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 44

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) . 44

Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016. 46

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 47

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 48

Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 48

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 48

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 49

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) . 49

Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 . 50

Table: Core Views . 61

Spain Agribusiness Report Q2 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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