Hungary Power Report Q2 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 51

Price:

BMI View: Hungary is currently subject to modest power demand growth, relatively high electricity pricing and must make some tough decisions over the timing and type of supply expansion programme it will undertake. It harbours long-term ambitions to export surplus power to Germany, but this probably requires an early decision on nuclear capacity investment. Meanwhile, there is a concerted effort to enlarge the country’s renewables capability, but progress is slow relative to the country’s European peers.
While renewables are also a core part of power supply growth, Hungary accepts that the expansion of wind and solar alone cannot meet rising demand, with nuclear the only realistic low-carbon option available to state generator MVM. It has been estimated by the government that 9 gigawatts (GW)of installed capacity will need to be added by 2025, and that nuclear will account for the single biggest addition.
Key trends and recent developments in the Hungarian electricity market include:
.. The likely average annual growth rate for Hungarian power consumption is just 1.14% between 2011 and 2021. This represents less than half of BMI’s forecast real GDP growth rate and reflects the relative maturity of the energy market. Growth in power generation over the next ten will register at more than 1.7% per annum, allowing for a gradual reduction in import dependency. Continuing expansion of supply above the rate of demand growth could ultimately deliver the country’s desired export potential.
.. The time taken to connect wind farms to the grid, and the high costs of doing so, are the main barriers to wind energy development in Hungary, it has been revealed by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the Hungarian Wind Energy Association (HuWEA). EWEA and HuWEA would like to see at least 1.2GW installed by 2020, which would provide about 5% of Hungary’s electricity demand.
.. According to BMI forecasts, non-hydro renewables generation should reach 4.6TWh by 2021. Within this total, wind power is put at 0.9TWh by 2021. These figures fall well short of government targets, but revision of policy would clearly accelerate growth in wind power use.
.. Power prices are relatively high when compared with European peers. November 2011 data, for example, show that household customers were paying around 16% more than equivalent users in the Czech Republic. Hungarian prices are significantly below those of Germany, providing support for long-term export plans.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Hungary Power SWOT .. 6
Global Industry Overview ... 7
Regional Industry Overview . 11
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 15
Hungary Snapshot (Macro) ... 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector .. 15
Hungary Forecast Scenario .. 15
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity ... 15
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ... 15
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 18
Table: Hungary Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 20
Table: Hungary Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 .. 21
Electricity Consumption 25
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 25
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 25
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports . 26
Table: Hungary Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016... 26
Table: Hungary Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 26
Table: Hungary Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 26
Table: Hungary Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 27
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 29
Regulation and Competition 29
Pricing . 30
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of November 2011 . 30
Key Projects Database . 32
Table: Hungary Key Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids . 32
Risk/Reward Ratings . 33
CEE Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 33
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 35
Hungary Power Risk/Reward Ratings .. 36
Rewards ... 36
Risks . 37
Competitive Landscape 38
MVM 38
MAVIR . 38
MOL . 38
EdF .. 39
E.ON 39
RWE . 39
Electrabel. 40
AES .. 40
Company Profiles .. 41
MVM 41
Glossary of Terms . 44
Table: Glossary of Terms . 44
Methodology and Sources 45
Industry Forecasts ... 45
Power Industry – Data Methodology ... 46
Generation and Consumption Data . 46
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 47
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 47
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 49
Sources 50Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 15

Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 15

Table: Hungary Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 15

Table: Hungary Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 18

Table: Hungary Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 20

Table: Hungary Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 21

Table: Hungary Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 25

Table: Hungary Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 25

Table: Hungary Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 26

Table: Hungary Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 26

Table: Hungary Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 26

Table: Hungary Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 27

Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of November 2011 . 30

Table: Hungary Key Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids . 32

Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 35

Table: Glossary of Terms . 44

Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 49

Hungary Power Report Q2 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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