Greece Defence and Security Report Q2 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 73

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The Greek defence budget is expected to experience a serious reduction of around 16% compared to 2011 figures as austerity measures begin to bite. Savings are expected to be found in the reduction of salary, operations, procurement and overseas deployment costs. The decrease in spending on overseas operations will herald a significant reduction in national deployments to Afghanistan, the Balkans and the Indian Ocean. Greece has historically both met and exceeded NATO's established 2% of GDP guidelines for national defence spending. It remains unlikely whether Athens can sustain such a figure in the near future.
The extent to which the defence budget has been ring-fenced from other national austerity measures has been brought sharply into focus by accusations that France and Germany had pressured Greece not to reduce its defence procurement budget, lest this affect purchases of equipment from these two countries.
At the strategic level, although tensions between Greece and Turkey have lessened in recent years, disputes between Athens and Ankara over the future of Cyprus, and the demarcation of airspace between the two countries, continues. There is a rough strategic balance that exists between the two nations’ air forces at present, although this could be upset over the long term should Turkey move ahead and purchase new Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA). Greece will need to perform a similar acquisition of new MRCAs in the future if it is to preserve the air power balance between the two countries. However, one Greek MRCA purchase has already been cancelled, and a renewed bid to acquire new combat aircraft in the future seems unlikely given the health of Greek finances.
Along with the requirement for new MRCAs, the Hellenic navy will eventually need to purchase new maritime patrol aircraft, although this is expected to be postponed until the country's financial crisis begins to ebb. However, Greece may take advantage of an American offer to acquire a large number of main battle tanks for free from ex-US Department of Defense stocks. While the purchase of new MRCAs maybe all but impossible for Athens in the foreseeable future, the country's air force has been keen to maintain its skills, and is deepening its relationship with Israel to this end. Greece is likely to continue to take advantage of Tel Aviv's deteriorating relationship with its erstwhile ally Turkey. The next 12 months will see one of the most challenging periods for Greek defence spending. The forecast reductions to the country's defence budget are likely to be difficult to achieve without a corresponding adjustment to the country's defence posture.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Greece Defence Industry SWOT 6
Greece Political SWOT .. 6
Greece Economic SWOT 7
Greece Business Environment SWOT 7
Global Political Outlook .. 8
Landmark Political Events Looming In 2012 . 8
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula . 8
Table: Election Timetable, 2012 .. 13
United States 17
Russia .. 18
China ... 19
Wild Cards To Watch ... 20
Europe Security Overview 23
Europe In A Global Context . 23
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade . 23
What If The Eurozone Collapses? Political Risks Assessed . 29
Security Risk Analysis .. 34
BMI’s Security Ratings 34
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 34
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ... 35
Political Overview .. 36
Domestic Politics . 36
Long-Term Political Outlook ... 38
Security Overview .. 41
Internal Security Situation 41
Table: Insurgent Groups In Greece . 41
Domestic Terrorism . 41
Corruption ... 42
Organised Crime.. 43
Timeline: Internal Threats ... 43
External Security Situation ... 44
International Terrorism ... 47
Relations With Turkey .. 47
Timeline: External Threats .. 48
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 49
Armed Forces... 49
Defence Reforms .. 49
International Deployments ... 53
Table: Foreign Deployments 54
Coordination And Joint Operations . 55
Market Overview 56
Latest Developments 56
Arms Trade Overview .. 57
Industry Trends And Developments . 58
Table: Key Players In The Greek Defence Industry . 58
Defence Industry Timeline ... 58
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 60
Armed Forces... 60
Table: Greece's Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 60
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) ... 61
Government Defence Expenditure 61
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) .. 61
Table: Greece’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 ... 62
Defence Trade .. 63
Table: Greece's Defence Trade, 2009-2016 (US$mn) .. 63
Macroeconomic Outlook .. 63
Table: Greece – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 ... 66
Company Profiles .. 68
Hellenic Defence Systems 68
Intracom Defense Electronics .. 69
BMI Methodology ... 71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 71
Defence Industry .. 71
Sources 72Table: Election Timetable, 2012 . 13

Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings . 34

Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 35

Table: Insurgent Groups In Greece . 41

Table: Foreign Deployments . 54

Table: Key Players In The Greek Defence Industry . 58

Table: Greece's Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 60

Table: Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 61

Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 61

Table: Greece's Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 62

Table: Greece's Defence Trade, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 63

Table: Greece – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 66

Greece Defence and Security Report Q2 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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