Czech Republic Power Report Q2 2012

Published : May 2012
No. of Pages : 56

Price:

BMI View: The future of the country’s power sector is largely dependent on nuclear and renewables, although gas has a key role to play over the medium-term, as it helps reduce reliance on coal in electricity generation. Solar power use has soared thanks to an over-generous subsidy scheme, which has now been revised in order to deliver more modest but sustainable growth. Current investment plans suggest that generation will remain more than adequate, comfortably meeting forecast steady growth in domestic demand and providing the basis for continued net power exports to neighbouring countries. Over the longer-term, the country aspires to significantly boost its nuclear power generation.
Key trends and recent developments in the Czech electricity market include:
.. Czech utility group CEZ is expected to exit its plan to construct three additional nuclear reactors, apart from the two planned reactors at the Temelín nuclear power plant, according to Ladislav Kriz, a spokesperson for the company. He added that the move was driven by a new public procurement law in the Czech Republic, which sets 30% as the limit for undertaking additional work. CEZ was planning to issue a tender for two plus three reactors, but is now expected to launch the tender, worth nearly US$10bn, for just two reactors. The withdrawal of the plan to build one reactor at CEZ's Dukovany power plant, and two in Slovakia, will decrease the tender's potential value by US$15bn. The company intends to select a winner out of the bidding companies – Areva, Westinghouse, and a consortium of Škoda and Atomstroyexport – in 2013.
.. Allowing for system losses (estimated at around 5.7% in 2011, and expected to fall to 5.4% by 2021, owing to new investment in the grid), power supply should continue to outweigh demand, enabling the continuation of net exports to neighbouring states. Czech power generation will have reached an estimated 79.3TWh in 2011. BMI is now forecasting an average 0.82% annual increase, to 86.0TWh, by 2021. Thermal generation is set to see 0.2% average annual growth, with gas displacing gradually both coal and oil. Gas-fired generation is forecast to increase by an average 17.7% per annum to 2021.
.. The Czech Republic has a fully diversified power sector, with coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and renewables all comprising the power mix. However, coal plays a dominant role, accounting for an estimated 58.4% of total power generation in 2011. We expect the fuel's market share to slip to 49.1% by 2021, as the country steps up its gas and nuclear powered generation to meet EU targets (13% share of energy from renewables for the gross final energy consumption by 2020). Yet, the Czech government still expects that solid fuels, including black (hard) and brown lignite, will still account for 30.5% of total consumption in 2030.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Czech Republic Power SWOT 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview .. 11
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 15
Czech Republic Snapshot (Macro) 15
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 15
Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 15
Czech Republic Forecast Scenario ... 16
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity ... 16
Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 16
Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 .. 19
Table: Czech Republic Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 23
Table: Czech Republic Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 24
Electricity Consumption 30
Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 30
Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021... 30
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports . 32
Table: Czech Republic Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 32
Table: Czech Republic Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 32
Table: Czech Republic Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ... 32
Table: Czech Republic Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 32
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 34
Regulation and Competition 34
Sustainable Energy Policies. 36
Pricing . 37
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of November 2011 . 37
Key Projects Database . 39
Table: Czech Republic Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids ... 39
Risk/Reward Ratings .. 40
CEE Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 40
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 42
Czech Republic Power Risk/Reward Ratings ... 44
Rewards ... 44
Risks 44
Competitive Landscape . 46
ÈEZ .. 47
ÈEPS ... 47
PRE .. 47
E.ON 48
Company Monitor ... 49
ÈEZ .. 49
Glossary of Terms .. 52
Glossary Of Terms ... 52
Methodology and Sources 53
Industry Forecasts ... 53
Data Methodology – Generation and Consumption Data 54
Data Methodology – Electricity Generation Capacity Data 55
Sources 55Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 16

Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 19

Table: Czech Republic Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 23

Table: Czech Republic Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 24

Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 30

Table: Czech Republic Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021. 30

Table: Czech Republic Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 32

Table: Czech Republic Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 32

Table: Czech Republic Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 32

Table: Czech Republic Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 32

Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of November 2011 . 37

Table: Czech Republic Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids . 39

Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 42

Czech Republic Power Report Q2 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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