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Argentina Commercial Banking Report Q2 2012

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No. of Pages : 64
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Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the 'Limits of potential returns' includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the 'Limits of potential returns', the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the 'Risks to realisation of returns' also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI's assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the 'Limits of potential returns' are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the 'Limits of potential returns', it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the 'Risks to the realisation of returns' category, the market elements (i.e. how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody's Investor Services' ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI's long-term risk rating.

Executive Summary . 5
Table: Levels (ARSbn) ... 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) ... 5
Table: Levels At January 2012 .. 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) ... 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (ARSbn) ... 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) ... 6
SWOT Analysis . 7
Argentina Commercial Banking SWOT . 7
Argentina Republic Political SWOT .. 8
Argentina Republic Economic SWOT 9
Argentina Republic Business Environment SWOT ... 10
Business Environment Outlook 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 11
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings ... 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology .. 12
Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 13
Global Commercial Banking Outlook ... 14
Latin America Banking Sector Outlook ... 19
Few Threats To Banking Sector From Eurozone Woes . 19
Table: Commercial Banking Sector – Asset & Loan Growth,2008-2013 . 21
Regional Banking Sector Outlook 23
Latin America Banking Sector Forecast Overview ... 23
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 23
Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 23
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios . 24
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 ... 24
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) . 25
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) .. 25
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields .. 26
Argentina Banking Sector Outlook .. 27
Macroeconomic And Political Risks Still Key ... 27
Economic Outlook .. 31
Table: Argentina – Economic Activity . 32
Competitive Landscape . 33
Market Structure .. 33
Protagonists . 33
Table: Protagonists In Argentina's Commercial Banking Sector . 33
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 33
List Of Banks ... 34
Table: Banks Ranked By ABA .. 34
Company Profiles ... 37
Banco de la Nación Argentina . 37
Table: Key Statistics For BNA, 2009-2010 (ARSmn) ... 38
BBVA Banco Francés .. 39
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-July 2011 . 40
Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (ARSmn, unless stated) ... 40
Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (US$mn, unless stated) ... 41
Table: Key Ratios, 2006-2010 (%) ... 41
Banco Provincia .. 42
Table: Key Statistics For Banco Provincia, 2009-2010 (ARSmn) 43
Banco Galicia .. 44
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-July 2011 . 45
Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (ARSmn, unless stated) ... 45
Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (US$mn, unless stated) ... 46
Table: Key Ratios, 2006-2010 (%) ... 46
Banco Macro ... 47
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-July 2011 . 48
Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (ARSmn, unless stated) ... 48
Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (US$mn, unless stated) ... 49
Table: Key Ratios, 2006-2010 (%) ... 49
HSBC Bank Argentina . 50
Table: Key Statistics For HSBC Bank Argentina, 2009-2010 (ARSmn) ... 51
Banco Credicoop . 52
Table: Key Statistics For Banco Credicoop, 2008-2010 (ARSmn) ... 53
Banco Santander Rio ... 54
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-July 2011 . 55
Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (ARSmn, unless stated) ... 55
Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (US$mn, unless stated) ... 56
Table: Key Ratios, 2006-2010 (%) ... 56
Banco de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires ... 57
Table: Key Statistics For Banco Ciudad, 2008-2010 (ARSmn) 58
Citibank ... 59
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 60
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ... 63Table: Levels (ARSbn) . 5


Table: Levels (US$bn) . 5


Table: Levels At January 2012 . 5


Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) . 6


Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 . 6


Table: Projected Levels (ARSbn) . 6


Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) . 6


Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 11


Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 13


Table: Commercial Banking Sector – Asset & Loan Growth,2008-2013 . 21


Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 . 23


Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 23


Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios . 24


Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 . 24


Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) . 25


Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) . 25


Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields . 26


Table: Argentina – Economic Activity . 32


Table: Protagonists In Argentina's Commercial Banking Sector . 33


Table: Banks Ranked By ABA . 34


Table: Key Statistics For BNA, 2009-2010 (ARSmn) . 38


Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-July 2011 . 40


Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (ARSmn, unless stated) . 40


Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (US$mn, unless stated) . 41


Table: Key Ratios, 2006-2010 (%) . 41


Table: Key Statistics For Banco Provincia, 2009-2010 (ARSmn) . 43


Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-July 2011 . 45


Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (ARSmn, unless stated) . 45


Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (US$mn, unless stated) . 46


Table: Key Ratios, 2006-2010 (%) . 46


Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-July 2011 . 48


Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (ARSmn, unless stated) . 48


Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (US$mn, unless stated) . 49


Table: Key Ratios, 2006-2010 (%) . 49


Table: Key Statistics For HSBC Bank Argentina, 2009-2010 (ARSmn) . 51


Table: Key Statistics For Banco Credicoop, 2008-2010 (ARSmn) . 53


Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-July 2011 . 55


Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (ARSmn, unless stated) . 55


Table: Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 (US$mn, unless stated) . 56


Table: Key Ratios, 2006-2010 (%) . 56


Table: Key Statistics For Banco Ciudad, 2008-2010 (ARSmn) . 58


Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale. 62


Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 63"

Argentina Commercial Banking Report Q2 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International
 

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