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Pakistan Real Estate Report Q2 2012

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No. of Pages : 56
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Despite having a vast and rapidly expanding population, as well as noticeably improving infrastructure,
demand for commercial real estate in Pakistan is stagnant, largely as a result of the country’s widespread
political instability and history of corruption. 2012 is an election year in the country, which means
analysts are remaining cautious in their predictions early in the year, while they wait to see how the
political situation will emerge
There are still a number of prestigious new developments ongoing in the country (such as the World
Trade Center under construction in Islamabad) which should contribute to a continuation in real estate
investment. In addition, a recent drive to build political and social relations between Pakistan and the
UAE is likely to result in a huge jump in real estate investment in the country, and is already in evidence
from a number of developments under way.


We no longer expect real GDP growth to recover in FY2011/12 (July-June). Despite improvements in the
domestic macroeconomic environment (in terms of inflation and the cost of credit), economic activity in
Pakistan continues to be lacklustre. Furthermore, the long-running energy crisis should limit the country's
growth potential. Private consumption is projected to remain the biggest contributor to headline real GDP
growth, while net exports represent the largest drag. We are pencilling growth to slow to 2.2% this fiscal
year, from 2.4% in FY2010/11.


Key Opportunities In The Real Estate Market:
􀂃 Lahore Development Authority and Islamabad’s CDA are targeting and shutting down
developments that are built or run illegally, in the hope of attracting legitimate projects in their
place and improving transparency in both cities.


􀂃 The UAE in particular is ramping up investments in Pakistan, which could increase its
international profile in the long term.
Key Risks To The Real Estate Market:


􀂃 Huge increases in the cost of raw materials in late 2011 have reduced the affordability of new
projects for developers.


􀂃 Rents and yields remain difficult to forecast, given the precarious security situation in the
country.


􀂃 2011 was a dismal year for real estate investment, both locally and from overseas, and it may
take a while for new projects to sufficiently improve the country’s bleak outlook, in spite of
developments to this effect.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Pakistan Real Estate/Construction SWOT . 7
Pakistan Political SWOT ... 8
Pakistan Economic SWOT . 9
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT 10
Real Estate Market Overview 11
Market Analysis – Office 14
Supply And Demand. 14
Rents And Yields .. 14
Table: Historic Office Rents, 2010-2011 (PKR per m2/month) 15
Table: Net Office Yields, 2011-2012 16
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid 2011 .. 16
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 16
Table: Forecast Office Rents, 2012 (PKR per m2/month) 17
Table: Forecast Net Office Yields, 2008-2016 . 17
Market Analysis – Retail 18
Supply And Demand. 18
Rents And Yields .. 18
Table: Historic Retail Rents, 2010-2011 (PKR per m2/month). 19
Table: Net Retail Yields, 2011-2012 19
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid 2011 .. 19
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 19
Table: Forecast Retail Rents, 2012 (PKR per m2/month) 20
Table: Forecast Net Retail Yields, 2008-2016 . 20
Market Analysis – Industrial .. 21
Supply And Demand. 21
Rents And Yields .. 21
Table: Historic Industrial Rents, 2010-2011 (PKR per m2/month) .. 22
Table: Net Industrial Yields, 2011-2012 .. 22
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid 2011 .. 22
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 23
Table: Forecast Industrial Rents, 2012 (PKR per m2/month) .. 23
Table: Forecast Net Industrial Yields, 2008-2016 ... 23
Construction And Infrastructure Outlook 24
Table: Pakistan Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 24
Table: Pakistan Construction And Infrastructure Industry Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 25
Construction And Infrastructure Overview .. 26
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 28
Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity, 2012-2017 . 31
Business Environment .. 32
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings 32
Table: Asia Real Estate/Construction Environment Ratings 32
Pakistan’s Business Environment 33
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings ... 33
Institutions ... 34
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating .. 35
Infrastructure ... 37
Table: Labour Force Quality ... 39
Table: Asia - Annual FDI Inflows, 2006-2008 . 40
Market Orientation .. 40
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings .. 42
Table: Pakistan - Top Export Destinations, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 44
Operational Risk .. 45
Competitive Landscape . 47
Company Profiles ... 49
Bestway Cement ... 49
BMI Methodology ... 50
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 50
Construction Industry .. 51
Bank Lending ... 52
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating .. 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ... 53
Sources 55

Pakistan Real Estate Report Q2 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International
 

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