Australia Oil & Gas Report Q1 2012

Published : November 2011
No. of Pages : 104

Price:

BMI View: Gas, in particular coal bed methane (CBM), may be the future for Australia’s energy export industry. Conventional gas and vast volumes of newly-discovered CBM, or ‘coal seam gas’ (CSG) as it is known in Australia, can underpin the majority of planned gas export schemes, boosting further Australia’s position in the global LNG trade. Oil prospects are less encouraging, but the scale of likely gas exports should deliver substantial net energy receipts for decades to come.
Main trends and developments we highlight for Australia’s Oil and Gas sector are: • CBM will increasingly contribute to the country’s gas output, particularly in the east of the country. We expect overall gas production to have reached 90bcm by 2016, freeing up more than 52bcm of gas for export in the form of LNG, largely to Asian customers. By 2021, gas production should be above 122bcm and LNG exports could have reached almost 80bcm.
• The controversial Australian Resources Super Profit Tax (RSPT) has been scrapped by Prime Minister Julia Gillard. This removes major uncertainties over the fiscal regime governing the mining and oil and gas sectors, and is a particular boon to the nascent CBM-LNG industry in Queensland. Instead of the RSPT, the existing petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) that is applied to offshore oil and gas projects will be extended to cover the onshore as well, including the CBM-to-LNG sector. Upstream industry lobbyist the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) has criticised the new tax.
• Prime Minister Gillard has proposed a new carbon tax that would impose an initial cost of AUD23 per tonne of carbon emissions starting in 2012 and rise by 2.5% per annum before moving to a market-based scheme in 2015. The LNG industry has lobbied for exemption from the new carbon tax scheme.
• According to the country’s energy ministry, Australia is using oil three times faster than it is finding it. Oil import dependency is expected to increase to 78% within the next 10 years. Government forecasts suggest petroleum import dependency rose to 50% by 2010. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production averaging no more than 585,000b/d at its new peak in 2014, before declining to 512,000b/d by 2016.
• By 2016, the crude oil import requirement is expected to rise to 490,000b/d, costing some US$16.7bn (assuming an average OPEC basket oil price of US$93.20/bbl). In 2011, we expect Australia to have imported an average 455,000b/d, at a cost of US$16.9bn using an OPEC oil price of US$101.90/bbl. Gas exports are forecast to rise towards 52bcm by 2016, bringing in potential LNG revenues of US$25.9bn. Potential net petroleum export proceeds for 2016 are therefore estimated at US$7.6bn, with the higher LNG exports helping to offset the rising oil imports.
At time of writing, we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.38/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010 reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis. For 2012, growth is put at 3.6%.

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Australia Oil and Gas SWOT ... 8
Global Energy Market Outlook 9
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 000b/d, 2008-2015 .. 12
Global Oil Production, 000b/d, 2008-2015 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook .. 15
Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016 .. 15
Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 ... 15
Oil: Downstream . 16
Table: Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 . 16
Gas Supply And Demand . 17
Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016 . 17
Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 . 18
Liquefied Natural Gas.. 19
Liquefied Natural Gas.. 19
Table: Gas Imports (bcm), 2009-2016 19
Australia Energy Market Overview ... 20
Table: Upstream Projects Database ... 21
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 23
Table: Australia Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016f .. 23
Oil And Gas Reserves . 24
Oil Supply And Demand.. 24
Gas Supply And Demand 25
LNG 26
Coal Bed Methane/Coal Seam Gas . 27
Refining And Oil Products Trade 27
Revenues/Import Costs ... 27
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ... 27
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 28
Oil Refineries ... 28
Table: Refineries In Australia . 28
LNG Terminals 28
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia 29
North-Western WA .. 30
Northern Territory .. 35
East-Central Queensland 38
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings ... 42
Asia Pacific Region .. 42
Regional Risk/Rewards Ratings .. 42
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating 42
Regional Upstream Risks/Rewards . 43
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating . 43
Australia Upstream Rating – Overview .. 44
Australia Upstream Rating – Rewards 44
Australia Upstream Rating – Risks . 44
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards. 45
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating . 45
Australia Downstream Rating – Overview .. 46
Competitive Landscape 47
Executive Summary .. 47
Table: Key Players – Australia Oil And Gas Sector ... 48
Overview/State Role . 48
Government Policy . 49
Licensing Rounds 52
Table: Key Upstream Players . 55
Table: Key Downstream Players 56
Company Monitor .. 57
Woodside Petroleum 57
Santos .. 60
BHP Billiton 63
Apache Corp 66
Arrow Energy .. 68
Chevron Australia 70
ConocoPhillips 73
ExxonMobil Australia .. 76
Royal Dutch Shell 79
BG Group Australia . 82
Origin Energy – Summary .. 84
Dart Energy – Summary . 85
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) – Summary ... 85
BP – Summary 85
Petrobras/MEO – Summary 86
Roc Oil – Summary . 87
Inpex – Summary 87
Sinopec – Summary . 88
PTTEP – Summary . 88
Murphy Oil – Summary ... 90
Total – Summary . 90
Hess – Summary . 90
Others – Summary .. 90
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts 93
Regional Oil Demand .. 93
Table: Oil Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 93
Regional Oil Supply . 93
Table: Oil Production, 000b/d Long Term forecasts, 2014-2021 . 93
Regional Refining Capacity . 94
Table: Refining Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ... 94
Regional Gas Demand . 95
Table: Gas Consumption Long Term forecasts, 2014-2021 95
Regional Gas Supply 96
Table: Gas Production Long Term forecasts, 2014-2021 ... 96
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 97
Glossary Of Terms 98
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 99
Ratings Overview . 99
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure ..100
Indicators 100
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology ...100
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology ...101
BMI Methodology 103
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .103
Energy Industry ..103
Cross checks ...104
Sources ...104

Australia Oil & Gas Report Q1 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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