Angola Autos Report Q4 2011

Published : August 2011
No. of Pages : 26

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Used cars dominate demand in Angola owing to the low affordability levels in the country. The new vehicle market is small and led by purchases by the government and the country’s wealthy elite. BMI, however, sees significant scope for growth in new car sales over the next five years and thereafter.
Angola's growth is set to be the sixth fastest in the world and the third fastest in Sub-Saharan Africa (after Ghana and Uganda), according to BMI forecasts. In 2011, real GDP growth is expected to reach 7.6%, boosted by a sizeable improvement in export revenues. By 2015, we believe growth will return to the double digits and have pencilled in a 10.4% rise for that year. In turn, that will lead to a threefold increase in the country’s per capita income, leading to the emergence of a whole new customer base. In line with this view we expect new vehicle sales growth to average 23% between 2011 and 2015, with sales reaching 80,900 units by the end of the forecast period.
Angola had a fairly well established autos manufacturing until early 1980s, but cutbacks in imports crippled production thereafter. Significant improvement in the country’s business environment has occurred in recent years but automotive production in the country has not picked up in earnest. On a brighter note, however, foreign players such as Volkswagen (VW), Mercedes-Benz and some Chinese firms have committed to production in the country, which makes us optimistic about Angola’s production potential. These projects also fall in line with the Angolan government’s drive to diversify the economy.
Japan’s Toyota Motor reportedly dominates the passenger car segment, occupying close to a fifth of the total news sales. Meanwhile, the lower end of the market is dominated by the joint venture between China’s Dongfeng Motors and Japan’s Nissan Motor, which has been operating in Angola from 2006. German car brands VW, BMW and Mercedes have also maintained a strong presence.

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 4
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 5
Angola Auto Industry SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Angola Political SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Angola Economic SWOT....................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Angola Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Global Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 7
BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry ................................................................................................................................................. 7
Regional Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 12
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Angola Auto Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts .............................................................................................................................. 13
Macroeconomic Forecast ................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Angola – Economic Activity ..................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 18
Government Regulation And Policy .................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................... 21
GM's Aggressive Strategy Should Succeed ......................................................................................................................................................... 21
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 22
Toyota Angola ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Volkswagen Angola............................................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Nissan Angola ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 25
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model ......................................................................................................................................................... 25
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26

Angola Autos Report Q4 2011

Published By: Business Monitor International

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